Entry posted by Master-Debater
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As the tax debate heats up one would think that the fighting would be between Democrats and Republicans. Instead of this usual party-line fighting a fight within the Democratic Party has broken out and caused real fissures to form in the party.
One the one side President Obama has worked out a deal with moderate Democrats and Republicans to extend the tax rate for all people as well as continue unemployment benefits for 13 months.
On the other side of the preverbal front like is the Progressives and Nancy Pelosi who have flat out refused to sign onto any bill that does not get exactly what they want.
The argument is not splitting among partisan lines but along left wing lines. The Progressives are prepared to levy a huge tax increase on the middle class out of their hate for anyone who makes money. They have begun to do what they accused the GOP of doing with taxes, take the American people hostage until they get their way.
This morning the Democratic caucus voted to send the bill back to Obamas desk saying it was “unacceptable”. When they did this they sealed their own fate because just hours before both President Obama and VP Biden said there would be absolutely no changes made to this bill.
The fight has clearly broken down between Moderates and Progressives in the Democratic caucus. Nancy Pelosi is once again leading the charge against America by holding hostage the middle class out of ideological spite. Nancy Pelosi has indicated that she will never bring this bill to the floor which essential dooms the hopes of the current tax rates staying in place and assures that every single American will see their taxes increase come January.
This also has the added effect of dooming any hopes of passing the START treaty or DREAM act as the GOP has clearly said that they will vote against every single bill that comes to their plate until the taxes are fixed and the government is funded. As I type this the Senate has just voted to table the DREAM act 59-40.
President Obama is not out of options for passing this widely popular tax bill however. He can have the Senate amend the House bill to become his bill and then vote on it. It would garner enough votes in the Senate to be sent back to the House and force them to vote on the bill. It is widely believed that the bill could pass in the House with a combination of moderate Dems and the GOP backing it against the progressives. The question is can he do it?
Throughout this fight it has become clear that there is a real leadership fight in the Democratic caucus Nancy Pelosi has refused to do anything unless it is exactly as she and the progressives wants and Obama has proven to be more bi-partisan than people believe he is by reaching across the aisle to reach a deal that gives both sides what they want. Nancy Pelosi is set to become the minority leader while Obama will remain the President. The question then will become who is in charge? Pelosi will have no power to set agenda or pass legislature while Obama can use his influence to work to pass legislation as well as veto anything he does not like. This could be the last gasp of Pelosi as she realizes she is going to be ignored completely by the GOP controlled house just as the GOP were when she controlled the House. A bit of karmic retribution if you will.
This bitter fight between progressives and moderates does not look to be ending any time soon. Under Pelosi’s leadership it has become clear that unless you are a progressive, you are unwelcome. Moderates took a very big hit in the elections last month and may think again about running with Democrats in 2012 if Pelosi is still the leader of the Democratic House caucus.
SO what does it all mean?
In the long term this could mean a few things. The most likely is nothing. Moderates and Progressives will eventually come back together under new leadership.
Another option however is that Moderates will refuse to run with Democrats. In much the same way that the Tea Party has begun to primary RINOS it is possible, and has already been tried, that Progressives could primary anyone that is not ideologically left enough for them. The result of this would be Moderates and Independents running from the Democrats to either form a new party or vote for the GOP. The elections last month show that America does not want a left wing agenda and the Democrats would do well to realize this.
In the short term it is much much more damaging. Not just to their decreasing chances of taking back the House in 2012 but to President Obama.
In much the same way that President Bush said “Read my lips, No New Taxes” Obama has found himself in a “read my lips” moment. People often compare Obama to Carter but Bush may become the more appropriate analogy. If the tax rate for all Americans increases on the 1st then Obama will have virtually no chance of being re-elected in 2012. His numbers are already poor and not moving in the right direction for him to win in 2012 and an increase in taxes would doom his chances before they even got started.
This would cause massive infighting in the Democratic caucus in much the same way there has been infighting in the GOP since President Bush’s departure. A real fight for the soul of the party between hard liners and moderates would break out and would be very ugly with the end result being a very damaged Democratic brand. None of this should be a surprise either. The GOP have been going through this ever since they lost control of Congress and the White House. Democrats would do very well to learn from the GOPs history to not make the same mistake.
At the same time this entire wound is self-inflicted. The Democrats had, and still have until the next congress, super majority control in congress as well as control of the White House. If they were smarter they would have had this entire argument months ago and passed through whatever tax bill they wanted. They could have used a tax argument to deflect the argument away from the highly unpopular healthcare bill and instead into taxes where they could have had a proverbial “win”. Instead they stuck to their hard line leftist ideology and pressed ahead on even more controversial bills such as Amnesty and Cap and Trade. This entire debacle is their own fault and they have no one to blame but themselves.
In the end the question for the Democrats is, are they willing to sacrifice the Presidency, middle America, the economy, and their parties chances of regaining power in the near future all over a progressive ideology? After jamming through a highly unpopular healthcare bill the answer very well could be yes.
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