The Aliens Are Coming! Well no....not really....
A few days ago on the Nordreich forums, a discussion was started about the Voyager 2 probe. Understabndably, this turned into a discussion about intelligent life in the universe. Aliens. Little green men. Whatever.
It went on for a few pages before Captain Buzzkill decided to drop by.
My entire post is below, although I've had to change the formatting slightly.
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In any discussion of extraterrestrial life, there are some important things to consider. These considerations are largely based on Earth's experiences, as will be obvious. (But hey, that's all the hard data we have to work with.)
1. In any solar system, habitable zones are quite narrow. [May 26 edit. If I wrote this again I would add "if they exist at all."]
2. Intelligent life takes time.
3.
4. Humanity has only been properly organized into what one might call 'civilization' for perhaps 10,000 years, or since we advanced beyond hunting and gathering to genuine agriculture.
5. Humanity has been capable of wireless communication over great distances for about a century.
6. Humanity has been capable of manned space flight for less than fifty years.
7. Humanity has the capacity to destroy itself many times over, whether through war, disease or continually "!@#$ting in our own water bowl." (A phrase I first heard used by a friend of mine while in high school. It's a remarkably apt way of describing us.)
8. We have no data on which to estimate the average duration of 'advanced' civilizations before they succumb to self-destruction or are wiped out by natural causes. ('Natural causes' would include a supervolcano, a planet-wide extinction event caused by a collision with a big freaking rock or something like the eventual run-in between the Milky Way and Andromeda.)
So sure....extraterrestrial life is 'possible', but intelligent life is much less likely. Technologically-advanced life is considerably less likely than that. In the billions of years of this universe's existence, thousands or millions of civilizations could have risen and fallen already, just as ours will eventually. Not one has left a mark on the universe that is visible to us.
Does this mean that we should stop looking, unplug SETI and wait for the aliens to arrive? No. The human desire to know is unquenchable. We're worse than cats in this regard. (Much more reckless, too.)
But we need to face the fact that Humanity is alone. We are confined to this planet, and there are significant barriers to space exploration. We may send out probes, but it is very unlikely that we will ever 'reach the stars' in a personal way. It is even less likely that we will meet up with alien life.
When we are destroyed -- and make no mistake, we will be destroyed -- there will be no recollection of our once-great civilization.
"Woman gives birth straddling an open grave."
The universe is no different.
We are, quite frankly, solitary and doomed. Our ultimate end will be the equivalent of an unnoticed gurgle in the universe's digestive system. We have no 'legacy'. We have no 'future'. The life and death of most men is forgotten in a generation. As a group, Humanity has no one to remember us at all.
You're all welcome to stare up at the sky and think about things that will never be. Me? I think I'm going to get some ice cream.
Note: I also do weddings and birthday parties. For some reason bookings have been scarce lately.
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Let me quote the comment that was posted immediately below this post:
$%&@ you Zog!!! $%&@ you!!!
While I understand that the person who made this comment didn't intend it to be taken personally, there are some folks for whom the idea of 'life out there' is all that keeps them going. It is what drives both our religious impulses and our desire to know what's happening out in the stars.
But hey....motivations be damned. We're pretty much boned regardless of what gets you through the day.
My questions, though, are:
Is this information genuinely depressing? If so, why?
Am I wrong? Is there some law of physics I'm overlooking? Are Jesus, Muhammad, Buddha and Frank Tipler going to arrive to take us to a wonderful singularity filled with virgins and beer bongs?
If I'm right, does my my pointing this out make me a bad person? Should everyone just give up? Should you stop reading this and just go 'off' yourself?
I asked my wife, and she just looked at me and said, "Did you put the donuts in the fridge? I'm worried the glaze will melt."
Best answer ever.
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