Polemos Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 Does anyone know the formula for the success of nuclear weapons? Today I failed 13 nukes in a row before finally hitting one. Not sure whether it's random chance, but it seems like when it rains it pours with respect to SDIs... If you get the first few blocked, should you wait a bit before launching more? Thanks, -Polemos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartfw Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, Polemos said: Does anyone know the formula for the success of nuclear weapons? Today I failed 13 nukes in a row before finally hitting one. Not sure whether it's random chance, but it seems like when it rains it pours with respect to SDIs... If you get the first few blocked, should you wait a bit before launching more? Thanks, -Polemos Cowboys drink. Miss a nuke? Have a drink. Miss a 2nd? Have a 2nd. If you miss 13, you post like doornail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polemos Posted June 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 13 shots and even you'd be hammered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartfw Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 Not a big fan of shots in general. Tends to always end up the same way: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackatron Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 Each nuke has a 40% chance of hitting, whilst missing 13 nukes in a row is very unlikely: 0.6^13 chance, but given the number of wars taking place in the game it happens from time to time, you just got exceptionally unlucky. (The most nukes in a row I've heard about being blocked before is 12, going up that high is obviously rare.) I believe the system is RNG, you might get a different result if you wait, but it might have been that if you hadn't waited your next nuke would have hit, but after waiting your first nuke does not. TL:DR, no, unless there is some mechanic that is completely hidden, there is no "strategy" for landing nukes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porksaber Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 (edited) ya thats it Edited June 17, 2016 by porksaber Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogar Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Blackatron said: (The most nukes in a row I've heard about being blocked before is 12, going up that high is obviously rare.) I can't recall anyone missing every single one but I had heard of up to 20 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopherbashi Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 I think I've heard of 17 or 18 before, so I wouldn't be surprised with 20. I think my personal best (worst?) is around the 12-13 range as well. Honestly, if I miss the first two, I'll try someone else or click around a few screens for a bit (just in case there is some "reset" that happens). If I don't get it within a couple of tries after that, I normally hand it off to someone else or just give up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Zigur Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 I do about 20 pushups before launching for good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexio15 Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 34 minutes ago, Immortan Junka said: I do about 20 pushups before launching for good luck Not hard to miss when 99% of your targets don't have a SDI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duderonomy Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 Thanks, Blackotron. I constantly explain the concept of probability to people, but they still whine about misses. It's like lecturing slot-machine players. The only wrinkle is that many RNGs are based on your system clock, so they aren't truly random. That's why some people are recommending you wait. While I don't care to speculate concerning the specific routines of CN's coding, it doesn't hurt to wait a few minutes or nuke again later in the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogar Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Gopherbashi said: or just give up. CN war is not for quitters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gowfanatic Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 I've launched 16, and I believe Dream or Smurth once launched around 20... I've tried the waiting game, and it doesn't always work. I find as you said, when it rains it pours... I either first hit, or I'm tossing 6+ at a guy before one lands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xR1 Fatal Instinct Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 Most I've had blocked in a row was 17 or 18... sad, sad day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Hakai Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 I missed 38 in a row Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duderonomy Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 19 minutes ago, Master Hakai said: I missed 38 in a row I need Jack Layton to confirm this is legit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unknown Smurf Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 I had 48 thwarted against me in a 24 hour period (But 1 nuke hit in the middle, around nuke 26) -- 25 by the same person in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingzog Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 (edited) 6 hours ago, hartfw said: Not a big fan of shots in general. Tends to always end up the same way: Oh hey, it's Mr. Hands! Also...I've never had the obscene streak of failure others have had. One or two. I'm not really qualified to say whether waiting will make a difference, but it can't hurt. Edited June 18, 2016 by kingzog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helbrecht Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 Pray to RNGesus, he died for your sins. It is RNGesus who can make sure your gifts arrive safe and sound to the recipient's home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackatron Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 6 hours ago, Duderonomy said: Thanks, Blackotron. I constantly explain the concept of probability to people, but they still whine about misses. It's like lecturing slot-machine players. The only wrinkle is that many RNGs are based on your system clock, so they aren't truly random. That's why some people are recommending you wait. While I don't care to speculate concerning the specific routines of CN's coding, it doesn't hurt to wait a few minutes or nuke again later in the day. Well apart from radioactive decay and certain quantum interactions nothing is truly "random", everything is caused by something, I don't know that we are even capable of producing a computer the produces a "random" number, ultimately the choice of outcome must depend on preexisting factors. It would be quite fantastic if 27 nukes from one person were blocked in a single day, though you'd think the attacker might as well give up by the time you're almost out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Dakota Posted June 18, 2016 Report Share Posted June 18, 2016 19 hours ago, hartfw said: Cowboys drink. Miss a nuke? Have a drink. Miss a 2nd? Have a 2nd. If you miss 13, you post like doornail. I wholly support this message. Now, if you're too much of a wimp for shots... try beer. Almost any type of Summer Shandy is great this time of year. Oh and you may also want to pray to Planet Bob Jesus, it never hurts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malazar Posted June 20, 2016 Report Share Posted June 20, 2016 My personal worst is 24 misses in a row. I have a 13 misses in a row or similar streak pretty much every time I restock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Layton Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 On 6/17/2016 at 7:34 PM, Duderonomy said: I need Jack Layton to confirm this is legit. Confirmed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emperor Whimsical Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 couple years ago around bipolar i heard a guy in IRON dropping a full payload and missing every nuke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Navy Posted June 28, 2016 Report Share Posted June 28, 2016 I've had something like 22 of my last 25 blocked, including 9 in a row over multiple days. This hasn't been an uncommon theme over the course of the last 5 months or so I've been fighting. I simply refuse to believe it's a straight 40/60 in all circumstances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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