Upper End of the War

[Micheal Malone]

I am extremely happy I decided to take a peak at this thread! A+ work here! Look forward to more stats as things progress.

[King Louis the II]

Excellent job.

[tamerlane]

Good thread. You should really track the tech-infra ratios as that is really where this war will be defined. High Infra NS nations are gonna fall hard whereas high tech NS nations are going to stay relatively stable and be relatively cheap to repair and get back into a given tier to continue the fight. This is where the most significant advantages can be viewed.

[WarriorConcept]

Brilliant thread to follow.

[Longshadow]

I like this read, very succinct and to the point without any bias at all.

[enderland]

Good thread. You should really track the tech-infra ratios as that is really where this war will be defined. High Infra NS nations are gonna fall hard whereas high tech NS nations are going to stay relatively stable and be relatively cheap to repair and get back into a given tier to continue the fight. This is where the most significant advantages can be viewed.

 

I wonder if there is a NS range where this actually becomes a drawback - I suppose for high tech levels this is an advantage, but eventually, it leaves you in range of a lot more people which becomes a disadvantage.

 

I wonder what the break-off point is.

[Indian Bob]

Tech's main advantage is when fueling nukes. As long as EQ keeps 3 on 1 with mostly SDI equipped nations that tech advantage is much less important. The question is do we have the will and the stomach to keep this going?

[SoADarthCyfe6]

This is a like a Tactician's Paradise. Keep it up.

[CubaQuerida]

Tech's main advantage is when fueling nukes. As long as EQ keeps 3 on 1 with mostly SDI equipped nations that tech advantage is much less important. The question is do we have the will and the stomach to keep this going?

Good strategy on paper but its not turning out that way, and even if you have SDI, the nukes still sting a lot. There just aren't enough nations to serve as fodder for the hi tech nations, and unfortunately tech cannot be rebought by the thousands. The real question becomes "are there enough nations willing to have themselves fully destroyed week after week?" Umbrella doesn't really have a choice in the matter.

[Caliph]

Tech's main advantage is when fueling nukes. As long as EQ keeps 3 on 1 with mostly SDI equipped nations that tech advantage is much less important. The question is do we have the will and the stomach to keep this going?

 

It also means 3 of your nations are eating damage while only 1 of ours is.  A ratio not looking good for the continued existence of your upper tiers.

 

Sounds good on paper, but time will tell it if pays off in the end.

[King Louis the II]

Good strategy on paper but its not turning out that way, and even if you have SDI, the nukes still sting a lot. There just aren't enough nations to serve as fodder for the hi tech nations, and unfortunately tech cannot be rebought by the thousands. The real question becomes "are there enough nations willing to have themselves fully destroyed week after week?" Umbrella doesn't really have a choice in the matter.

The idea of "are there enough nations willing to have themselves fully destroyed week after week?" might not be true because differently than umbrella nations, which will be continuously at war, equilibrium nations will fight for one week or two, go to PM rebuy and reengage. Thats the biggest advantage of a huge number of nations.

I think that even with the huge warchests than umb certainly have, it would be a very difficult position to be. I am not being biased, it is a matter of math. To me umbrella best chance would be if their allies were able to win their fronts and switch against NPO, IRON, TIO etc. However, the other fronts are equally dogpiled.

[angryraccoon]

The idea of "are there enough nations willing to have themselves fully destroyed week after week?" might not be true because differently than umbrella nations, which will be continuously at war, equilibrium nations will fight for one week or two, go to PM rebuy and reengage. Thats the biggest advantage of a huge number of nations.

I think that even with the huge warchests than umb certainly have, it would be a very difficult position to be. I am not being biased, it is a matter of math. To me umbrella best chance would be if their allies were able to win their fronts and switch against NPO, IRON, TIO etc. However, the other fronts are equally dogpiled.

 

Heya King Louis

 

I agree completely with your statement. However limited tactics are here on "Bob" coordination between alliances on each side may be key. A large average warchest + activity level and dedication for the fight along with solid coordination can turn the tide.  If not win out right it may at least win a white peace through attrition (or that white peace seems to be the way of the day). I will not make any claims that the great war tactitions are on one side or another. But maybe I will say that one side has made decent desions in the face of statistically overwhelming odds. At the same time there has been very questionable decsions on the other. This in my opinion does show a weakness. Will numbers overcome tactical mistakes? The outcome will be debated for years no matter how it ends. This is just a fact of the OWF.

 

I also will say best thread of the war..keep it up OP.

[King Louis the II]

 

Heya King Louis
 
I agree completely with your statement. However limited tactics are here on "Bob" coordination between alliances on each side may be key. A large average warchest + activity level and dedication for the fight along with solid coordination can turn the tide.  If not win out right it may at least win a white peace through attrition (or that white peace seems to be the way of the day). I will not make any claims that the great war tactitions are on one side or another. But maybe I will say that one side has made decent desions in the face of statistically overwhelming odds. At the same time there has been very questionable decsions on the other. This in my opinion does show a weakness. Will numbers overcome tactical mistakes? The outcome will be debated for years no matter how it ends. This is just a fact of the OWF.
 
I also will say best thread of the war..keep it up OP.

Good post!

[King Tom]

It also means 3 of your nations are eating damage while only 1 of ours is.  A ratio not looking good for the continued existence of your upper tiers.

 

Sounds good on paper, but time will tell it if pays off in the end.

 

I would think you would get to point when you have no nukes left, Then you are left fighting 3 nations with only 2 new nukes a day, trying to beat there sdi.

[youwish959]

I heard there was a strategy meeting here.

[OverlordShinnra]

This is pretty much the GOAT thread. I'm looking forward to the next installment.

[jerdge]

The entry of NG is IMHO decisive in giving DH&co the advantage in the upper tiers. It will be interesting to see how many top nations AI&co will be able to drag down with them on their way down - I haven't even tried to keep track of the situation, is there someone willing to share data on that?

Assuming - and it's a big assumption - that both sides will be able to stomach the fight for a long time it's probably going to be a siege kind of situation. The defenders of the citadel* (mostly Umb, MK and NG high tech nations) will be very difficult to attack; AI&co will on the other side ZI whoever was left out of the walls.

Both sides have to work on their respective internal unity to ensure that communication keeps flowing and that no party can have the reasonable suspect that they're lifting an unjust share of the load. I suspect that the side that will do this better will eventually prevail. But I am going off topic...

 

 

[* pun! :P ]

Edited January 29, 2013 by jerdge

[D34th]

The entry of NG is IMHO decisive in giving DH&co the advantage in the upper tiers. It will be interesting to see how many top nations AI&co will be able to drag down with them on their way down...

 

Not really since NG is fighting in another front and with a very limited role for now, unless NG declares war or attacks the alliances who are in the core of the battle against Umbrella, what is very unlikely since the ties with NPO/IRON, if NG keeps their participation limited to the defense of TLR all they will manage to do is damage/destroy the upper tie of SF/XX/NpO and those alliances aren't also taking part on the attack against Umbrella, so nothing really change in the main front of the war. NoR will have much more impact than NG when/if they enter in defense of MK. 

[jerdge]

Yes and no, D34th. The pressure added on SF/XX/NpO top tier would also help preventing these last to later attack on the Umbrella front. If NG's involvement with them increases they're going to find it harder to switch. You're not really wrong either, at least for now.

[shahenshah]

Another aspect is majority of the nations on DH side are not top tier. How long will they be able to take the pressure. Its a tough situation as more of their nations will be in more of pressure to enable high tech nations to derp nukes. Overall it will be a very interesting war. On political front tho we can argue wether DH is a dominant power or not. An important element is where people percieve the power to lie, that pretty much has been a case for mk at some point for some time. Is that perception still there?

Also Im glad this thread hasnt been plagued by owfness so far.

[Vasily Blyukher]

To begin with, my apologies if I missed anyone's DoWs.  I wasn't paying that close of attention to the forums, but I've tried to go back and catch them all.  Also thanks to Roxas for the war web which is invaluable for double checking to make sure I have everyone.  

 

TOP Front

 

Alchemy

Alchemy has entered on the TOP side of things and done so without significant use of peace mode through their tiers.  Alchemy brings with them 4 nations over 100k NS, with three of the four having over 10k tech.  The total count for Alchemy is:

 

100k+ NS: 4 war

90k to 100k: 3 war

80k to 90k: 3 war/1 peace

70k to 80k: 2 war

60k to 70k: 2 war

 

TOP

TOP meanwhile has suffered a significant drop in nations since I looked at them last Friday.  On Friday they has 18 nations above 100k in war mode and 7 in peace mode.  Today (Monday) I see 8 nations above 100k in war mode and 7 in peace mode.  TOP's new breakdown is:

 

 

100k+ NS: 8 war/7 peace

90k to 100k: 2 war/6 peace

80k to 90k: 6 war/4 peace

70k to 80k: 8 war/ 6peace

60k to 70k: 2 war/ 8 peace

 

What we see with TOP now are ten nations have dropped out of the 100k range and 4 nations have dropped out of the 90k range since Friday.  More impressively is the total movement through the 90k range.  10 nations dropping out of the 100k range means 10 new nations in the 90k range.  For the 90k range to be down by 4 overall likely means that 6 of those 100k nations went from over 100k to under 90k since my last update.  Or else moved to some other AA for amusement purposes.  Assuming no nation movement however, TOP didn't have a great weekend as far as these things go.  

 

TSO and Reaper:

 

 

100k+ NS: 8 war/ 3 peace

90k to 100k: 4 war/2 peace

80k to 90k: 3 war/1 peace

70k to 80k: 0 war/3 peace

60k to 70k: N/A

 

When these two groups entered, they brought in 12 nations over 100k.  Now they are down to 8.  The other 4 are hanging out in the 90k to 100k band.  I'd imagine these two alliances are benefiting from the fact more of the heat is on TOP, to drag its nations down into the grinder, and thus they suffer fewer losses.
 

TOP +Allies Total

 

100k+ NS: 20 war/ 10 peace

90k to 100k: 9 war/8 peace

80k to 90k: 10 war/5 peace

70k to 80k: 10 war/9 peace

60k to 70k: 4 war/8 peace

 

EQ Forces on the TOP Front:

 

 

100k+ NS: 40 war/ 25 peace

90k to 100k: 21 war/10 peace

80k to 90k: 35 war/10 peace

70k to 80k: 35 war/9 peace

60k to 70k: 32 war/9 peace

 

EQ has had 20 nations fall out of the 100k range from the last time I did this.  TOP, Reaper, and TSO had 14 fall out of total, so the TOP side comes out ahead by 6 nations in terms of dropouts.  In terms of how far they dropped:

 

Friday 90k to 100k for EQ: 18 war/10 peace

Monday 90k to 100k for EQ: 21 war/10 peace

 

That's only a +3 growth in the 90k to 100k range, when 20 EQ nations entered this range. That means heavy casualties in this area as well.  

 

All that said though, EQ has enough nations to go 2:1 on all TOP+Allies nations over 100k in war and even if every one of those nations remains over 100k, EQ has enough peace mode reserves to go 1:1 next round currently.  The same holds true for the 90k to 100k range.  

 

Personally I take this as expected.  TOP has always been facing unfavorable odds through this conflict, they were dog piled early and saw limited deployment of reinforcements to their front relative to the strength we've seen DH bring in in other areas.  That said TOP is dealing a lot of damage and taking people with them.  They've kept things in the 2:1 ballpark for most of the fight and made it so DH wouldn't need to redeploy that many assets to even out this front.  EQ has also managed to pull a good number of nations down into the sub 90k range to pound.

 

In terms of future actions, I think one of the more interesting alliances left is Nordreich.  They'd contribute 11 nations over 100k.  If MK were to deploy forces to the TOP front, or ghost declare to give Nordreich a channel, this front could even out.  MK and NoR forces coming in en masse could even swing the front in favor of DH.  Of course NoR is in the conflicting treaties boat, with both LoSS and MK holding MDoAPs with NoR.  

 

Argent Flip

With Argent flipped, you would have 32/25 for the EQ front and 28/11 for TOP.  That would give EQ the overall edge though, but the war mode would currently be closer to 1:1.  The take away is that a smaller alliance with an upper tier can impact the war more than half a dozen of the other alliances in its coalition.  

 

C&G Front

TLR of course has been countered, by forces currently on the front as opposed to new entries, and that of course brought in Non Grata.  That means you no longer have to read my wild speculation about where NG will fall and what it will do.  NG is in and fighting on the C&G Front.  

 

GATO has also been countered by forces fighting on that front.  As such I'm lumping this into just a broad front versus broad front coalition for the most part, however before that, GATO and TLR both did declare on specific targets.  With TLR hitting GOD and Invicta, while TLR hit Sparta.  Thus for stats:

 

Sparta

 

100k+ NS: 4 war/ 2 peace

 

GOD/Invicta

100k+ NS: 1 war

 

On Friday Sparta was contributing a total of 10 nations above 10k to the war effort.  Now they contribute 6, a drop of 4.  One of the two GOD nations above 100k was also picked off.  I'd say the tightly controlled punch of TLR and GATO worked out fairly well.  Five nations of the twelve nations over 100k were removed from six digit NS ranks, plenty of forces were left free to handle the counters, and NG was chained in.  Excellent all around.

 

On a side note, I want to mention The Republic of Z.  At time I did stats: 86k NS, 16,895 tech, 0.00 infrastructure. An excellent example of how you can support a high NS via stockpiling tech.  5k infra would put him well over 100k NS (15k NS from the infra, plus the NS from the troops and tanks he could buy at that infra level).  

 

Moving on, the totals for the EQ side fighting on the C&G front are:

 

 

EQ Forces on the C&G Front

100k+ NS: 69 war/ 29 peace

90k to 100k: 36 war/14 peace

80k to 90k: 53 war/19 peace

70k to 80k: 50 war/23 peace

60k to 70k: 80 war/25 peace

 

That's a total of 9 nations falling out of the six digit NS category.  The majority of the damage though seems to be in the 90k to 100k range, where EQ is down 12 nations, despite having 9 nations fall into the category.  In other words they were down 21 nations here under 9 fell in this range.  Assuming of course everyone only fell one strength band.

 

Now on the C&G, C&G itself is at:

 

C&G Forces

100k+ NS: 23 war/28 peace

90k to 100k: 8 war/16 peace

80k to 90k: 6 war/21 peace

70k to 80k: 10 war/21 peace

60k to 70k: 8 war/21 peace

 

C&G has seen 21 nations fall out of the six digit category based on these stats.  Also TLR and GATO has continued to shield large reserves in peace mode.  When they entered they only brought in nations above 100k and they haven't brought anyone to support those nations.  Non Grata has entered in a similar fashion, with New Luskan being the sole nation in the 90k to 100k band to have failed to hit peace mode.  New Luskan also lacks any offensive wars or aid history.  Someone needs to check his nation more.  

 

Non Grata:

 

100k+ NS: 32 war/3 peace

90k to 100k: 1 war/4 peace

80k to 90k: 0 war/4 peace

70k to 80k: 0 war/5 peace

60k to 70k: 1 war/4 peace

 

NG's entry really does a lot to even up the odds here.  It goes from 23 C&G nations facing off against 69 EQ nations this round to 55 versus 69.  Both parties also hold comparable peace mode reserves, with NG tipping the scale slightly in favor of C&G.  That said this is again similar to the TOP front, where a number of C&G nations have been dragged down to the shark tank.  The 70k to 80k range for C&G has grown from 4 nations to 10 (11 if you count the one NG nation that failed to peacemode) for example.  We've seeing growth in other ranges as well.  It appears the EQ forces on the C&G front had their time with good odds and now have to settle in for something closer to a 1:1, while they chew on what they managed to drag down prior to the NG entry.  

 

Doomhouse Front

This front used to be so nice and sane, so easy to do.  Then the GOONS declared war and people decided to jump all over them, despite the fact the GOONS had one nation over 100k and half their midrange nations were secured in peace mode.  Depending on how you look at it, either the GOONS are unpopular or fighting the GOONS is a great way to get in a DoW without having to expose that upper tier.  NPL is now fighting on two fronts of course as well.  That said I'm tracking NPL solely on the C&G front until such as a time as a meaningful amount of large NPL nations engage someone on the Doomhouse front.  

 

The new arrivals stats:

 

LoSS

100k+ NS: 0 war/1 peace

90k to 100k: 0 war/4 peace

80k to 90k: 1 war/1 peace

70k to 80k: 2 war/1 peace

60k to 70k: 1 war/4 peace

 

Guru Order

 

100k+ NS: 0 war/6 peace

90k to 100k: 0 war/1 peace

80k to 90k: 0 war/4 peace

70k to 80k: 2 war/1 peace

60k to 70k: 3 war/2 peace

 

FAN

 

100k+ NS: 1 war/0 peace

90k to 100k: 4 war/0 peace

80k to 90k: 3 war/1 peace

70k to 80k: 1 war/0 peace

60k to 70k: 12 war/1 peace

 

 

That's a total of 8 nations over 100k, with all but the FAN nation in peace mode.  The impact of these nations remains to be seen.  Specifically the question is, are those 7 in peace mode to form part of a later reserve?  Or are those 7 in peace mode because the alliances decided they wanted to partake in the war, but didn't want to expose themselves to the Umbrella and MK nations fighting on this front?  Time will of course tell which path is taken.  

 

As for the current EQ forces (now with BAPS tossed into the AI stats), it is as follows.

 

Anarchy Inc

AI + BAPS

 

100k+ NS: 4 war/5 peace

90k to 100k: 4 war/1 peace

80k to 90k: 7 war/1 peace

70k to 80k: 11 war/2 peace

60k to 70k: 22 war/1 peace

 

Sons of Anarchy

 

70k to 80k: 3 war

60k to 70k: 1 war

 

 

I used to have to view the first three pages of AI to gather stats on them, when I found myself only needed to click to the second back to gather all the stats, I knew this wouldn't be pretty.  On Friday AI had 2 nations over 100k in war mode and 15 in peace mode.  Come Tuesday they appear to have brought out 10 of those peace mode nations.  Despite that only 4 AI nations remain over 100k in war mode.  They've dropped from 17 total to 9 total.  The 70k to 80k range has had a large number of dropouts.  

 

New Pacific Order and IRON

 

100k+ NS: 7 war/14 peace

90k to 100k: 11 war/8 peace

80k to 90k: 27 war/2 peace

70k to 80k: 39 war/7 peace

60k to 70k: 32 war/9 peace

 

The big question here is if NG now considers its treaty with the NPO and IRON suspended for the duration of the conflict and thus forces can strike at these alliances with impunity, or if deployments against NPO and IRON are still limited.  That said IRON has launched a wave of attacks against VE and there are also VE vs NPO fights going on.  Thus I'd say any concern over Umbrella having to fight solo against these alliances is gone.  

 

In terms of pure performance, NPO and IRON have lost 10 nations out of the six digit NS range.  Couple with AI's drop, that is 18 total.

 

EQ Forces Fighting on the Doomhouse Front

When you take all of the above, plus add in NATO and TIO, you come up with the totals of:

 

100k+ NS: 23 war/36 peace

90k to 100k: 27 war/22 peace

80k to 90k: 45 war/21 peace

70k to 80k: 72 war/16 peace

60k to 70k: 91 war/21 peace

 

Umbrella

 

100k+ NS: 31 war/2 peace

90k to 100k: 5 war/0 peace

80k to 90k: 8 war/0 peace

70k to 80k: 2 war/0 peace

60k to 70k: 1 war/0 peace

 

Umbrella has dropped 12 nations over 100k NS.  Either due to war damage or vacations off AA.  Even so, Umbrella has more nations in war mode than the entire front fighting them.  Two large Umbrella nations also managed to make it to peace mode.

 

Mushroom Kingdom

 

100k+ NS: 14 war/4 peace

90k to 100k: 5 war/2 peace

80k to 90k: 4 war/2 peace

70k to 80k: 4 war/7 peace

60k to 70k: 4 war/4 peace

 

MK is down 4 nations from the six digit range.  That's a total of 16 for DH, compared to the 18 total by IRON and the NPO.  

 

VE

 

100k+ NS: 12 war/2 peace

90k to 100k: 3 war/0 peace

80k to 90k: 4 war/1 peace

70k to 80k: 5 war/0 peace

60k to 70k: 5 war/0 peace

 

VE is down just one nation above 100k.  However they are seeing heavy damage in the 80k to 90k range and such.  This is expected given that VE entered with most of their alliance in war mode and a lot of the midrange NPO, IRON, and AI nations were waiting for people to fight.  

 

The side totals (adding in GOONS) are:

 

Doomhouse Total

 

100k+ NS: 58 war/8 peace

90k to 100k: 13 war/2 peace

80k to 90k: 16 war/3 peace

70k to 80k: 11 war/7 peace

60k to 70k: 10 war/7 peace

 

The upper tier on this front is now 1:1, assuming of course GO and LoSS opt to engage more than just GOONS.  That said for this war cycle the odds currently favor Doomhouse based on the number in war mode.  This brings up an interesting challenge for the EQ side.  Even if you bring everyone out, you're still 1:1 and the nuclear damage rate favors Doomhouse due to their higher tech and more damaging nukes.  If you keep a reserve, it gives you the ability to deploy against Umbrella nations and keep them at war for 21 full days (thus ensuring you force an anarchy collection and you get 21 days of nukes).  However keeping a reserve means that your nations currently out of war mode will be facing poor odds.  

 

The Big Picture

What I find interesting here is how the Doomhouse and TOP fronts mirror each other.  TOP is facing 2:1 odds vs EQ forces, while the EQ forces currently in war mode on the DH front are facing the same odds.  If all EQ forces on the DH front commit, they'd manage to make it more comparable to the C&G front where we're in the ballpark for 1:1.  Of course the constant on both fronts is that EQ needs to remain aggressive in its DoWs to avoid letting large nations slip over to peace mode and rearm or get out of anarchy long enough to hit the collect taxes button. 

 

Moving forward, pending some more support, EQ seems to have shot its bolt on the DH and C&G fronts.  They've dragged down a number of nations to chew on and now they're facing even odds in the upper tier.  On the TOP front, EQ can continue to make progress, but TOP is making them pay for it.  Also if any alliance is set up to spend a long time as turtling nuke turrets, I would imagine it is TOP due to their experience from BiPolar.  

 

On two of the three fronts EQ is now entering a stage where it can either fight without a large peace mode reserve to come in and ensure DH nations remain in war mode and anarchy or keep nations back in peace mode but give opposing forces the numbers advantage.  

 

I'm curious to where TIO and NATO will stand in a round or so of war.  It seems like DH has focused on doing damage to AI, IRON, and NPO.  It could be TIO and NATO are next in line to be targeted by the DH upper tier.  As for C&G front the question will of course be if NG is decisive as people assumed they were.  NG is a fairly tech heavy bunch and might be able to blow away a lot of enemy infra quickly al la how Umbrella did away with a lot of the infra heavy NPO and IRON nations.  

[Saber]

Big factor in this story is warchests. I believe many nations funded their growth by ignoring proper warchest maintanence. This means that once they start to run dry their infra, tech and NS means little if they get bill locked or unable to launch many attacks. We've seen nations as big as 110k NS get deployed offensively with as little as 120M warchest. What I gather from that is that even with their advantage of 2:1 on TOP front, they still are at their limits of deployable forces. Deploying a nation that can hardly fight for even one round of war is proof of that.

Edited January 29, 2013 by Saber

[omfghi2u2]

I am interested to see the warchest levels on each of the sides. Nonetheless, very excellent write up. Kudos. -omfg

[SpiderJerusalem]

It also means 3 of your nations are eating damage while only 1 of ours is.  A ratio not looking good for the continued existence of your upper tiers.

 

Sounds good on paper, but time will tell it if pays off in the end.

 

In the beginning of the war, this is correct.

 

If we assume however, that the wars will continue on being 3 v 1 as you seem to believe, the numbers will be quite different. Since only 40 % of the nukes will hit, there will be an average of 0.8 hits a day. Some days you'll get lucky and hit with both, some days you won't hit with either. 

 

Over the course of 7 days of war (6 nukage days),you will be able to fire 14 nukes. In simplified math it's going to be 14*0.4= [b]5.6[/b] nukes that are going to hit their targets. That's not even 2 nukes pr. person. 

 

The target that's been hit will however be hit by 6 nukes in the course of the war. 

 

In other words, in terms of total nuke damage, the results will be fairly even. When you count in GA's, CM's and AA's, the defending nation will lose however. Sure, he has the [i]possibility[/i] to get as many of those attacks in as the aggressors. But he does not have the possibility to coordinate, ensuring easier attacks for the aggressor. 

 

 

It will be a costly battle for both sides. If the Equilibrium coalition manage to hang in there however, they will win in the end

[lazaraus45]

In the beginning of the war, this is correct.

 

If we assume however, that the wars will continue on being 3 v 1 as you seem to believe, the numbers will be quite different. Since only 40 % of the nukes will hit, there will be an average of 0.8 hits a day. Some days you'll get lucky and hit with both, some days you won't hit with either. 

 

Over the course of 7 days of war (6 nukage days),you will be able to fire 14 nukes. In simplified math it's going to be 14*0.4= 5.6 nukes that are going to hit their targets. That's not even 2 nukes pr. person. 

 

The target that's been hit will however be hit by 6 nukes in the course of the war. 

 

In other words, in terms of total nuke damage, the results will be fairly even. When you count in GA's, CM's and AA's, the defending nation will lose however. Sure, he has the possibility to get as many of those attacks in as the aggressors. But he does not have the possibility to coordinate, ensuring easier attacks for the aggressor. 

 

 

It will be a costly battle for both sides. If the Equilibrium coalition manage to hang in there however, they will win in the end

 

50% block chance, how in gods name this continues to be overlooked by even the so called elite AA's is beyond me