Vasily Blyukher

Oh it lives. Wow. Update will be happening around Monday afternoon/evening likely based on what my schedule looks like.

Regarding your first point, it all depends on if EQ is happy to let those nations in the safe zone escape or not. The war was declared with the purpose of bringing certain parties back down to size. It all depends on how you define "back down to size". If the goal is ever nation out there is yanked back down to size, sooner or later (likely in another war at this point) you need to reel those 30+ nations back in. So far the damage capacity suggests you need at least 1.8 nations to bring one large nation down, so that means at some point EQ needs to build and field a force of at least 54 nations to reel in the ones that 'got away' in this war. If EQ is happy with getting all but 30+, then it is less of a concern. Again, if DH pushes the safe zone down, suddenly that 30 becomes 40, then it becomes 50, and the economics folks will feel increased pressure to build up the force for the next war and at some point EQ will have to consider the fact they might just be digging a giant pit that their poor econ guys have to fill back in before they can even begin building. What EQ considers their "win conditions" plays a big factor now. As for the coalitions falling apart. C&G seems rather angry that is was dogpiled and motivated to see it through. Closing down the TOP front with a TOP surrender (not implying such is likely even) would not result in EQ getting a lot of upper tier nations and of course I doubt MK and/or Umbrella would be granted peace since that is contrary to the purpose of all this. Whereas on the EQ side you have multiple Dark Templar people saying publicly this war sucks, some feel they are on the wrong side, and they're out the moment their allies exit. A couple other EQ alliances have had members make similar statements. The big issue seems to be that for EQ to make meaningful progress in knocking out opponents, they need Non Grata out, which in turn means closing it down with TLR, which in turn means closing it down with C&G. All the paths for EQ to benefit via peace out are longer and seemingly harder than paths for DH. As for the neutrality aspect, the reality is there isn't much to be neutral about. DH has neatly carved out a safe zone and looks to be in the process of expanding it. I'd imagine if someone did a nuke turret tracking thread they'd manage to get a more pro EQ viewpoint and if you combined my thread and that thread you'd get a composite viewpoint. As it stands EQ has gone from having favorable odds on all three fronts to only having favorable odds on the TOP front and front is "my handful of nations is bigger than your handful of nations". Just reporting those stats carries a pro-DH slant at some degree. Personally it is in my self interest to see EQ win and the concept of "big nation" end up below the triple digit range so I have an easier time building up and becoming anything beside upper mid tier. Upper end analysis is pro DH because they established the safe zone.

I actually find myself wondering how decisive EQ wants the war to be at this point. There is of course the decisive outcome where the EQ nations between 75k and 90k buy infra, declare up, and trying to drag down more Umbrella nations. If you happen to think that the 120k+ Umbrella nations are war weary and low on funds due to their efforts to stay above that NS mark, you of course would think EQ should give those orders. The trend though has been that EQ has gone from having 2:1 or 3:1 odds on various fronts, to only having favorable odds on the TOP front (which is the smallest front by far). On the DH front, the first five EQ alliances took heavy losses and the entrance of VE also brought in others. On the C&G front the Non Grata entry swung the odds against EQ. If that trend continues, there is a possible outcome where by mid March the safe zone is 100k or so and up. So we see the trend where the number of large nations that 'escape' increases. At first it was just going to be some supernations, then it was going to be 10-15, now most people are suggesting ~30. Perhaps things go well and by mid March it is ~50 nations in the safe zone. There are options such as a strategic withdraw from certain tiers by EQ (peace mode) and focusing on those large nations that have fallen. Follow that up with some kind of peace deal and a cold war with both sides engaging in rebuilding. Plus it would provide EQ with time to get NG on their side in the next round of this conflict or make other arrangements. This is all predicated of course on EQ feelings they can make economic and diplomatic gains in peace time. If so it might be better to hammer on what they've dragged down for awhile, end the war, and move forward. As opposed to running the risk of DH+Friends taking control of everything over some NS number and in the end more than 30 nations living in the safe zone. Hypothetically speaking, with 30 nations in the safe zone, the EQ folks have their work cut out for them to catch up to them. If that number goes to 40 or 50 or something else, it just makes it that much harder to make economic gains post war due to the head start that DH has. It becomes a balancing act of "How do I want to hit these nuke turrets?" versus "How far is that safe zone going to expand?".

It already takes me long enough just to do these stats and nuke turrets aren't really part of the upper end. If the DH side of the show starts to run out of nukes this will be reflected in that DH nations won't be taking 1.5 to 1.8 EQ nations with them when they die. Lack of nukes will reduce damage output of the DH nations and thus the number they take with them. If someone else wants to do this or start a nuke turret tracking thread I think that would be a wonderful it. As it stands, above 60k I think damage output is captured by the kill to death ratio (for lack of a better phrase).

The Doomhouse Front Totals for Doomhouse: 100k+ NS Nations: 17 war/10 peace 90k to 100k: 4 war / 3 peace 80k to 90k: 7 war / 1 peace 70k to 80k: 12 war / 4 peace 60k to 70k: 8 war / 6 peace EQ Totals 100k+ NS Nations: 3 war/ 18 peace 90k to 100k: 9 war / 17 peace 80k to 90k: 32 war / 11 peace 70k to 80k: 43 war / 17 peace 60k to 70k: 67 war / 18 peace First, 11 days since my last update? Time does fly. Now then, diving in, on the DH side I'm only tracking actual AAs, no Doombird Cave or anything like that. So just assume the normal fine print about how DH likes forces to migrate around. To begin with EQ has lost 17 nations from over 100k since last time I checked, DH has lost 11 nations. One thing that has struck me the last few times I run stats has been how few war mode nations the core five of EQ have out. Bubbler Nation is the the only guy out and in combat currently. Now then to be fair, it has been 11 days which is plenty of time for a nation to come out, fight a 7 day war, and dart back into peace mode to rearm. However if you break it down a little for those over 100k: NPO Peacemodes: Belgi: Since 23 Jan Espanola: Since 10 Jan Sludgeville: Since 9 Jan Wilsonovia: Since 10 Jan Suttonia: Since 9 Jan AI Peacemodes: Avtomatia: Since 17 Jan Gaussia: Since 18 Jan aboooe: Since 18 Jan IRON Peacemodes Island of Darkness: Since 14 Feb Borat-stan: Since 13 Feb NATO Peacemodes: 420peaceland: Since 19 Jan TIO Peacemodes: Minilla Island: Since 19 Jan Vegeria: Since 18 Jan SchaeferEmpire: Since 19 Jan Republic of Scag: Since 30 Jan MK and Umbrella Peacemodes: 6 Total, 2 date to pre 1 Feb 2013 Basically the findings here are that aside from three nations, everyone ducked in during mid January and hasn't been out since. Now if you're Milcom you're likely thinking "I see people who didn't meet warchest requirements". The second idea I've seen brought up is that the core of EQ knows all their allies won't make it across the finish line. So these nations are the reserve force to come in when allies peace out. I have mixed feelings on this last ditch reserve force as doing such a thing comes with a cost. Namely letting MK and Umbrella nations go pillage on other fronts while hoping they take enough damage that bringing this reserve in will be a decisive blow later on. The third option is, if you're a shit poster, you already have a peace mode joke typed in the Quick Reply box. What this suggest though is that well first off that NATO nation was honest with his naming. Secondly it means to engage those big DH nations EQ is going to need to declare up as it appears the 100k nations currently in peace mode are comfy there and not regularly cycling in and out to help fight. EQ does have 9 nations out in the 90k to 100k range and 32 out in the 80k to 90k range. Of course the problem is those up declaring EQ nations are basically walking up and saying "Hello Mr. Large Umbrella Nation, please fire nukes at me that have three times the tech bonus my nukes do." On the TOP front it look 1.7 EQ nations per TOP nation to drag down TOP nations in the last stats check. In the most recently exchange on the DH front was 1.5 EQ nations per DH nation removed. So to remove 25 DH nations would cost EQ somewhere in the 38 to 43 nations. EQ clearly has that many nations in the 80k+ range. However as shown with the long term EQ peacemodes some of the EQ nations may not be combat capable if you're of the "Well someone doesn't have a warchest" viewpoint. In addition DH has more tech while elements of EQ on this front have less. TOP had less tech than Umbrella and did not require large scale up declares to hit, as the war mode odds always favored the EQ forces for 100k+. Here EQ is going to have to declare up, which likely increases the size of the millstone that EQ is going to need to bring to the table. Stepping away from the 100k side of the war for a moment, I want to look at the 60k to 70k range. Last time EQ had 108 nations in that range and DH had 27. This update EQ has 85 and DH has 14. So to take 13 DH nations out, cost EQ 23 nations. Or in other words each DH nation took 1.8 EQ nations with it. First off these stats are of course skewed by the fact larger nations would fall into this range (with EQ having more falling currently). However this should be a range that EQ dominates in, 50k nations can declare up to hit 66k nations to help the numerically superior 60k EQ nations. Yet we're still seeing a high cost to bring down DH nations even in this range where DH can be swarmed over. If this kind of casualty ratio continues it is going to be a real problem for EQ. If there is some massive battle royale going around down in 60k, it means EQ's 60k nations aren't as free to declare up and hit the 70k to 80k DH nations. In turn that means those DH nations can engage the EQ nations in that range and limit the number free to declare up. Suddenly you're at a point where EQ has 3 nations over 100k, plus only 20 to 30 nations that can up declare to support them. 23/33 versus 17 does provide the odds needed to drag down DH nations that stats so far seem to suggest you need. Especially when the vast majority of those nations are up declares with lower damage output. C&G Front So two new entries since last time, GDA and Apparatus. I've added them into tracking. Totals for C&G: 100k+ NS Nations: 31 war/20 peace 90k to 100k: 9 war / 11 peace 80k to 90k: 9 war / 19 peace 70k to 80k: 17 war / 22 peace 60k to 70k: 7 war / 19 peace Totals for EQ: 100k+ NS Nations: 2 war/31 peace 90k to 100k: 18 war / 23 peace 80k to 90k: 31 war / 26 peace 70k to 80k: 45 war / 27 peace 60k to 70k: 85 war / 35 peace So at the upper end a clear advantage to one side. The cynic in me imagines that the EQ war planning channel is a bunch of people saying "No, you pull your reserves out of peacemode and go attack NG first." Seriously though I'm seeing some problems where for EQ. Many EQ nations are not peace mode cycling, rather they're in and staying in. While on the C&G side, last time I did the stats, ODN and Int had pulled back into peacemode. ODN is already starting to cycle out. Int has yet to. However the take away is C&G is showing signs of life and planned cycling in and out of peace mode in the upper tier. Whereas EQ just sat there for the past 11 days and let NG + C&G eviscerate everyone over 100k, and some of people in the 90k range. The damage totals are: EQ Losses: 100k+ NS Nations: 21 90k to 100k: 7 NG/NOR/G&G Losses: 100k+ NS Nations: 20 90k to 100k: 12 The key issue here is that this was the front where EQ needed to be expensive to kill. They needed to be the kind of nations that took 1.5 to 1.8 enemy nations to bring them down. Instead above 90k it was 1.1 (actually below 1.0 when you take out the GDA and App nations that joined). The result of that exchange is a front where EQ is going to require a significant amount of upward declarations to engage the large nations still fighting on the C&G side of things. This likely ensures the gap only gets wider. In the 60k to 70k range, EQ again enjoys a major numbers advantage. EQ is up 13 nations in this range since the last stats check (8 from App and GDA). C&G is down 5 nations in this range. Honestly that isn't that great since last time I checked there. The largest area of progress for EQ appears to be in the 80k to 90k range though. C&G has gone from 46 to 28 (18 lost). EQ has lost 11. If EQ can keep clearing out this range, it opens the door for their surviving 80k+ nations to declare up and help out with the significant issues that EQ faces at the very top end. As a side note, with the massive number of sub 70k nations in play on this front for EQ, nations can be borrowed from this front to help deal with the DH nuke turrets and their damage ratio. In closing though I do want to point out that some EQ alliances seem to be fighting more than others. Invicta for example has everything over 40k in peace mode and has been happy to stay that way for the most part. One view of course is that alliances are being brought in and out of peace mode in a coordinated fashion and Invicta happens to be on reserve duty. The other view is that Invicta is pretty much done with having their upper tier gutted and just doesn't want to be the first alliance out, so they're just using the doves to create a ceasefire. The motive of that ceasefire of course is open to speculation. The end result though is that when I do the stats I seem alliances heavily engaged with a lot of NS movement and others where it comes down to "Oh, everyone is peace mode still". If EQ wants to maintain the credible threat of a numbers advantage lower down, they're going to need to show that everyone fights at some point. TOP Front Totals for TOP+Friends: 100k+ NS Nations: 4 war/1 peace 90k to 100k: 3 war / 2 peace 80k to 90k: 4 war / 2 peace 70k to 80k: 6 war / 2 peace 60k to 70k: 6 war / 8 peace Totals for EQ: 100k+ NS Nations: 8 war/14 peace 90k to 100k: 4 war / 4 peace 80k to 90k: 20 war / 12 peace 70k to 80k: 30 war / 12 peace 60k to 70k: 32 war / 9 peace This front is fairly quiet. The Dark Templar and Argent both suffered some losses, but that is likely in part due to the larger Umbrella/DBDC/etc nations migrating over to the TOP front to engage them. TOP and company still just have out the nations they first brought into the war for the most part and seem content to let them fall and play nuke turret. EQ has the numbers here to keep pushing those nuke turrets down and grinding away. However I did find an interesting fact on the war screen: Wars Nebula X, 4 nations in war mode over 60k, 1 war United Equestria, 1 nation in war mode over 60k, 2 in peace, 1 war Cult of Justitia, all active wars with Umbrella nations Molon Labe, all active wars with MK or Umbrella nations Considering that CoJ contributes 4 of the nations over 100k to EQ on this front and Molon Labe contributes 1, that actually moves the needle on 100k+ so that TOP + Friends have 4 nations and EQ has 3 nations on this front in war mode. Also last time I posted, TOP members mentioned having at least 5 nations off AA, so that number might change further. Also for the record, out of the 4 CoJ nations over 100k, 2 have no wars, the other 2 are engaging an Umbrella nation. The away here is that this front isn't seem to be as active as others and TOP+Friends are still going well. They've lost 11 nations over 100k since the last update, while EQ has lost 9. In terms of war mode nations is has gone from 18 EQ nations versus 7 TOP+Friends nations to 8 versus 4 (with not all of those 8 fighting or fighting on this front). TOP has of course benefited from Umbrella nations migrating over here to fight Argent and TDT. This is also another front you can borrow smaller nations from to go hit DH nuke turrets. The Big Picture First and foremost it appears that DH does have the ability to start clearing out nations on the TOP front in addition to continuing their removal of nations over 100k on their own front. Meanwhile the C&G front is also going well for the large nations on the C&G side. Broken record part: People should have refrained from poking NG with that stick for as long as possible. The really problematic thing for EQ as I see it the war of attrition going on down in the lower tiers and the number of EQ nations it is taking to swarm over DH nuke turrets. That is limiting the forces available for upward declares and making the large nation shorter that much worse for EQ. EQ definitely needs to make some progress here and really maul some of those turrets. Political will of course plays a major role in deciding most wars. Right now though it seems to be reaching a point for EQ where the political will is about to become a larger issue. The war is reaching a point where soon DH will have the forces to down declare if they desire and start clearing out everyone above 80k (a 110k NS nation can hit strike down to 83k). While EQ has superior numbers in the 80k to 90k range on paper, there are some alliances who are trying a lot harder than others. I could see a situation arising where DH focuses on those alliances who are trying and engages them heavily with favorable odds (similar to how Argent and TDT were singled out for visits from Umbrella) while leaving those who aren't trying that hard for later. I have to wonder what impact this might have on alliances that are fighting well out of professionalism as opposed to any hatred of Umbrella/Doomhouse/etc. They have to know they're on the short list for a visit from Doomhouse or Non Grata and may be wondering if it is worth losing everything above 80k for the cause. The numbers are clearly there for EQ in the lower ranges, but it really does seem like some alliances are doing the heavy lifting. With the cost to destroy a Doomhouse nuke turret those alliances are going to start feeling the stress soon and other EQ nations need to show they can also do heavy lifting when the time comes. For EQ, aside from killing off nuke turrets and hopefully doing it in an efficient fashion, the big thing is going to be firmly setting the lower limit of the large nation safe zone that DH is creating. EQ has a lot of nations in that range and with coordination and cooperation they can resist down declares, launch organized strikes upwards to grab who and what they can, or help with some of the larger nuke turrets. Beside political will, I also have to admit I'm interest in the morale aspect. For the DH side, while some of those guys below 70k are getting pounded, they're still getting to see things like o ya baby's war reports, CubaQuerida's nukes of doom, etc. On the EQ side, some alliances might be doing some damage in the under 60k shark tank, but they also just saw NG or Umbrella roll into town and destroy everything they had above 90k. Sure the coalition still has lots of people above 90k, but their alliance no longer does. Much has been made of how frustrating it is to be a turtling nuke turret, but I wonder how frustrating it is to find yourself trade nukes with someone who has more tech while your big boys are being picked off. End of the day of course this is all speculation. I think in another week to ten days it will be interesting to see what is happening in the 80k to 100k range and who is paying what price there.

Just for the sake of argument, say we assume there is some number of such nation. If those nations clear out the upper tier, they've opened an escape hatch for others. Lets say DH orders 5 nations in the shark tank to purchase infra and jump clear. EQ either has to let them go or chase after them. If the upper tier has been cleared, that means EQ needs to order 10+ nations to buy up and declare on those 5 DH nation. The 'twinked up' (whatever that means) nations can hit those 10 EQ nations that bought up and take the pressure off their 5 comrades. At the end of the war cycle those 5 DN nations might need to top off their NS, but those 10 EQ nations will have been gutted by nukes from people like Methax and Cuba. That means more EQ nations need to jump up or they need to accept those 5 are gone. Meanwhile DH can order more nations to jump clear and put more pressure on EQ. The issue I'm seeing on the EQ side is how exactly EQ is going to stop the DH nations from covering the retreat of other DH nations, with the retreat being back above 110k. EQ can of course make it difficult to retreat and try to keep at least some in the shark tank, but give the way the upper tier seems to be playing out, there is going to be a safe zone. DH forces are moving to help TOP finish off the upper tier over there, the C&G has favorable odds for C&G thanks to NG's entry (Int and ODN have managed to pull back their nations and rearm even) and my sample today shows 20+ DH nations operating without much fear of attack. The safe zone is happening and while DH is finishing off its creation, EQ gets to swarm the nuke turrets, but it seems like DH can end the attacks on their nuke turrets in the near future if they so desire.

I figured today's update would be slightly different (I'll run the war wide stats later in the week). Rather today I decided to take a bit of a closer look at the state of large DH nations. Umbrella CubaQuerida To begin with, Umbrella's largest nation and king of the massively overpowered nuke, CubaQuerida is in peace mode. Well at least until he ends up with 11 nuclear weapons. In fact Cuba is not all that interesting, he's big, he's mean, and he just finished up an extremely destructive war with BubblerNation. For EQ though it isn't a great sign that Cuba was allowed to hop into peace mode and restock his nukes. Anyway, moving on to the war mode nations. magicalbricks To begin with we have magicalbricks and his angry cat war face. Bricks is currently 188k NS and engaged solely in offensive actions against two EQ nations. Arcticllama of the Dark Templar and danhawk of TIO. Bricks' war with Llama runs from 2/5 to 2/13 and the damage favors Bricks, he's done 10k to Llama's 4k. Bricks is down 196 tech, Llama is down 400 tech. Danhawk's war is even more in favor of bricks. He's done 15k in damage compared to 1.2k done by Dan. What is even more impressive if bricks has lost 40 tech, Dan has lost 647 tech. The land exchange is even uglier. By the way, at the time of writing this, Danhawk has no other wars. Noob Cake Moving on to the next Umbrella nation, Noob Cake, he is engaged in three offensive wars and no defensive wars. At 137k Noob Cake is fighting nations from Dark Templar, Argent, and NATO. The Argent nation is doing comparable damage to Noob Cake, but the other two wars are heavily in Noob Cake's favor currently. GrandPoobar The fourth strongest Umbrella nation, Poobar is also engaged in three offensive operations. He's attacking a GLOF nation, a Dark Templar Nation, and a NATO nation. Poobar is enjoying favorable damage exchanges (at least 2:1) in all three wars. I'd take some screenshots of them, but then it would take me all day to do this, sorry guys. Iherud The fifth strongest Umbrella nation, at 135k NS, is also engaged solely in offensive operations. Iherud is hitting Dark Templar, IRON, and TIO. All damages are favorable to Iherud in at least 3:1, if not better. JoshuaR Reaching JoshuaR we find the first Umbrella nation who has an active defensive slot. On 7 Feb DevastationStation of IRON attacked JoshuaR. Things have been going well for DevastationStation, he's lost 5k strength compared to JoshuaR's 15k loss. The tech exchange also benefits DevastationStation, he's lost 180 to JoshuaR's 734. For the record though, DevastationStation is suffering heavy losses against Xavii of Umbrella. JosshuaR's other war is going swimmingly well for for them, as he is fighting Globetrotter of TPF and JoshuaR has lost 0 NS since he declared on 2 Feb. Globetrotter has lost 25k NS. He has no other wars. I assume Globetrotter is inactive, but still, wow. JodhuaR found himself an upper tier tech raid in the midst of a global war... Xavii Xavii is the first war mode Umbrella nation I've found who has no offensive wars. Xavii is the 7th strongest Umbrella nation and currently has 116k NS. The damage exchange rates are favoring Xavii, and he has lost ~19k NS since the wars started on 7 Feb. As a side note Xavii is fighting the same IRON nation as JoshuaR and has a much more favorable damage rate, so I assume Xavii is the Umbrella nation firing nukes at him. J2TheD Like Xavii, J2TheD has a pair of his defensive slots filled. He is currently at 109k NS. Against one IRON nation he is losing NS at a 1:1 ratio, the other war is in his favor by about 9:1. DarkFox, the IRON nation performing at 1:1 against J2TheD, went from 79k on 3 Feb to 94k on 4 Feb. He declared on J2TheD on 5 Feb. This has really been what I was looking for, EQ nations having to buy up to remain in contact. For the previous Umbrella nations I was looking at the people attacking them and trying to find NS spikes prior to a DoW, this is the first one I've found. What is interesting here is DarkFox has dropped back down to 78k, so at the end of this war he'd have to repeat the rebuy to engage any Umbrella nation over 103k. Kill Joy The number nine Umbrella nation, at 107k, has a pair of CoJ nations on him from 4 Feb and 6 Feb. Kill Joy is on the losing end of the strength exchange of both of those wars, although the only war where CoJ has managed a exchange rate above 2:1 is a war where Kill Joy has lost 8k NS and Yamin Auk Zafar has lost 3k NS. What I find again though is an IRON nation who had to buy up. In this case Lokvear of IRON engaged Kill Joy (and Natan) on 11 Feb. On 6 Feb Lokvear went from 43k NS to 78k NS. His NS chart then rises slowly, which I assume is from military purchases, until he reaches 82k NS and engages Kill Joy and Lokvear today. Irons82 The number 10 Umbrella nation features no defensive wars. He's fighting one IRON nation, a Dark Templar nation, and a TPF nation. The Dark Templar war is notable in that Irons82 has a 5:1 damage ratio. The other two damage ratios are hovering in the 1:1 area, slightly favoring Irons. Kwell The number 11 Umbrella nation is under attack by one IRON nation. That IRON nation, Falcon IV, has dropped from 99k to 67k over the course of the war. Falcon IV is at war with another Umbrella nation as well. Kwell has lost 6k NS. Rardie Radie is 98k NS and has three nations engaging him. Two Molon Labe and one NATO. Sixgun, the first ML nation to engage, declared on 6 Feb. On 5 Feb, Sixgun went from 82k NS to 88k NS. Aggierebel96, the second ML nation, declared on 9 Feb. On 3 Feb he went from 74k to 92k NS. The NATO nation, gpn777 is a larger nation who has just been getting smaller as the war goes on. threefingeredguy Threefingeredguy is the 13th largest Umbrella nation and currently fighting two defensive wars. His war with Souleater of RnR is a 1:1 damage exchange, but Onion of Argent has done 17k damage versus 4k damage done by threefingeredguy. I cut off my Umbrella monitoring here. At this point smaller EQ nations can engage from the 60k to 70k NS range without needing to buy up. However based on the above this is what I come up with for the top Umbrella nations: 12 War Mode/1 Peace Mode: 36 open defensive slots Defensive Slots Filled: 14 Defensive Slots By Nations That Had To Buy Up: 3 Now this is a small sample size, but looking at this upper tier you see nations who have no defensive wars and can pick and chose their targets. EQ only has 38.9% of the defensive slots filled here. Out of those slots filled, 21.4% required a nation to buy up and engage, which is a warchest draining activity. Doombird Doomcave Doombird Doomcave has 11 more nations over 100k NS, with 6 of them in war mode. The largest, Methax, has no wars and is restocking nukes. From the remaining five the highlights are: lebubu All offensive wars, two of them in his favor. The third a 1:1 tie with acticllama (although they've each just lost ~600 NS). pudge1975 Two offensive wars, no defensive wars. Both wars are in his favor by ~2:1. TBRaiders Three offensive wars, two in his favor, one in the favor of NEW. WhatOnceWas Three offensive wars, all in his favor. Marcus Bellator Two defensive wars. Both wars are in Marcus Bellator's favor. So for the Doomcave we have: 18 Defensive Slots 2 Defensive Slots Taken (22%) No buy ups to engage. Mushroom Kingdom MK Top 10: 5 in war mode, 15 Total Defensive Slots 1 Defensive Slot Taken (7%) No buy ups to engage If you dig around enough, you can find buyups on the MK front as well. Kryievla went from 55 to 76k and is Drai of MK's sole defensive war. None in the top ten though. The Big Picture When you sum up the sample I've taken here you see: 69 total defensive slots 17 defensive slots taken (25%) 3 buy ups to engage (17% of the wars declared) So the good thing for EQ is they haven't had to order a lot of buy ups to engage the upper tier, of the course the bad thing is they're not really engaging the upper tier. Umbrella now has a number of offensive wars against EQ forces that started out the war on the 'TOP Front'. Other large Doomhouse nations have cycled into peace mode to rearm, get out of anarchy, and do whatever else they want. Some of the largest DH nations feel so confident they won't be attacked they're sitting in war mode and rebuying their nukes. Now I picked the DH front to perform this sample, because this was the front where fighting began and EQ was able to array their pick of nations and I was curious to see how that was playing out. IRON is the most active of the original five right now, while the NPO and AI are not major factors this high up. DH seems to be focusing its offensive wars on TIO, NATO, and people from the TOP Front as opposed to down declaring. Even where DH is being attacked, its always the bottom of their top ten. The big guys with massive tech stockpiles are just hanging out and conducting solely offensive operations. It appears as if Doomhouse has reached a point where they have 25+ nations that are free to cycle in and out of peace mode to rearm and conduct offensive operations at will. It is also important to keep in mind I didn't even look at VE or Mortal Wombat who are also engaged on this front. As to what those offensive operations are, some focus appears to be on TIO and NATO, mostly by MK nations. Umbrella nations from this sample appear to be focusing on pulling some heat off TOP. I likely sound a bit like a broken record, but when your strategic goal in this war was to end the Umbrella tech stockpile but the war plays out such that the largest Umbrella nations are conducting operations on their terms, that isn't a good sign. The other issue this brings up is the long term viability of the shark tank. The biggest DH nations seem to be cruising around right now and clearing out any EQ nations that are hanging around in dark corners. The moment you've cleared out everything big, you can order your nations in the shark tank to buy infra and jump clear. Yevengi Luchenkov summed up that option very concisely. EQ can of course also buy up, but with EQ having a lesser tech stockpile they'll need more infra to reach the same level. One of the angles with DMZ and tech dealing that I think has been overlooked is if DH might actually be able to clear a safe zone for their tech sellers. In the sub 6k NS range, millions in aid and thousands of soldiers can be decisive. So small GOONS and Deinos nations can take in 15 million and 10k in soldiers, go rampaging around and send tech back up to larger nations. If FACs are purchased, even more money can move down. As long as the small nations are careful not to grow into the range of EQ nations with military wonders who dropped in NS, they'll be fine. EQ can of course counter with its own aid packets, but that point EQ is double dipping in terms of warchest drain since they need to purchase infra and fund the ground wars between the tech sellers. It also opens the door to make it easier to jump out of the shark tank. A DH nation can buy infra/land/whatever to gain NS and then cap it off by accepting 300 tech in foreign aid to jump clear and bump their damage modifier back up.

The only issue I see with that, is it also seems likely that any DH forces who remain about 120k or so will ne enjoying an easy go of it. They can purchase tech as Scytale mentions and continue to expand the tech gap. At the same time those pulled down will be nuke turrets that gut EQ's mid tier and make it harder for EQ nations to grow. At that point EQ would have to make decisions regarding their own long term growth options.

The Umbrella nation is likely going to have favorable damage modifiers over the midtier nations they face (more tech and the WRC military wonder) than some, if not all, of their targets. That means over one round of war, the Umbrella nations would fire much more powerful nukes (and they can hit 3 people with a nuke for every nuke they take), do more damage on air strikes, etc. Basically the first three midtier nations sent in to attack an Umbrella nation would suffer greatly. The next three would suffer less since the Umbrella nation would have less tech in the second round, etc. The issue is how many rounds it takes to get rid of that tech advantage Umbrella has and how gutted your mid tier is in the process. Plus of course the issue of politically will. There is also the question of political will since whichever nations are tasked with orders to be in the first wave have to be nations who will let months of work be blown away just to do moderate damage to some giant tech stockpile. In on example, you have a large nation with ~10k tech but you've clearly lost a sizable amount of NS due to having infra blown away. So if you're sent in on an Umbrella nation you can be joined by two 'natural' 70k nations. That is nations who started the war at 70k as opposed to bigger nations who were ground down. Take corey faith of your alliance as a potential example of a natural 70k. He only has 2.2k tech. You'll likely do comparable damage to the Umbrella nation (and be the person firing nukes at the Umbrella nation due your tech), but corey is likely going to fair badly in terms of the air force, nuclear, and cruise missile exchange. Even worse if you run short on nukes and corey has to take over nukes, you're hitting the Umbrella nation with a nuke backed by 2k tech and he's handing out nukes with 10k tech worth of damage modifiers.

First off my apologies for the delay and if I've managed to miss any DoWs. Other things have had my attention, so I'm playing catch up here. That said, at least now some time as passed so we can see how things are going. Secondly, I see we've had some crossover on various fronts, namely the C&G and DH fronts kind of bleeding together. I'm still going to track using three fronts as on the not-EQ side each of those fronts has specific implications for treaty chains. Of course these treaty chains have pretty much all fired off at this point, but they remain relevant in terms of any potential peace deals. As an example, not to imply I have any knowledge of this happening, I would imagine if VE left the war, Mortal Wombat would leave with them. So the fronts may matter for specific peace deals. Finally, these stats are not complete in that various alliances have strength off AA for whatever reason. Now onward. The Doomhouse Front Umbrella 100k+ NS Nations: 13 war/1 peace 90k-100k: 3 war/0 peace 80k-90k: 11 war/0 peace 70k-80k: 6 war/0 peace 60k-70k: 6 war/0 peace The first though here, is wow. Last time I tracked Umbrella, on 29 Jan, they had 31 nations in war mode above 100k and 2 in peace. Now they have a total of 14. That means 19 nations dropped out. As you look further into the stats though, on 29 Jan, Umbrella had 49 nations total between 60k and 100k. Today they have a total of 30. As I look around a little I see some nations on Doombird Doomcave with less than 7 days of AA seniority, there is a nation on Genmay with 4 days seniority, etc. In addition, I only see one nation on Umbrella that is over 100k and under 15k tech (15k tech is 75k NS). When you add in some infrastructure, nuclear weapons, and a military, such a nation should still be over 80k easily, even if at ZI. Thus I must admit to being somewhat skeptical that so many Umbrella nations over 100k were blown under 15k tech in such a short period of time, as opposed to the nations simply vacationing elsewhere. Mushroom Kingdom 100k+ NS Nations: 3 war/10 peace 90k-100k: 0 war/1 peace 80k-90k: 1 war/0 peace 70k-80k: 2 war/3 peace 60k-70k: 6 war/0 peace MK has gone from 18 total nations above 100k to 13. They've also pulled a number of those nations into peace mode. This is not that great for EQ. MK has been able to peace mode between 6 and 10 new nations (4 were in peace mode on 29 Jan). That reflects somewhat badly on EQ in that their reserve force was unable to pin these nations in war mode and keep them on pace to be dragged down into the shark tank. GOONS Umar is vacationing over on Doombird Doomcave. The GOONS retain one nation above 60k and he is in peace mode. No tracking here. VE 100k+ NS Nations: 6 war/0 peace 90k-100k: 1 war/0 peace 80k-90k: 2 war/1 peace 70k-80k: 3 war/0 peace 60k-70k: 5 war/0 peace VE has gone from 14 above 100k to 6. This is expected in that VE was never as tech heavy as some of the other Doomhouse parties on this front. Specifically they field a total of 4 nations above 15k tech, while Umbrella still fields at least 13 nations above 15k, despite having been at war longer. Mortal Wombat My person least favorite entry to this war as their entry cost me a tech buyer (my slot was empty for 36 hours until I found a new buyer in WTF, you monsters!), Mortal Wombat fields: 100k+ NS Nations: 1 war/1 peace 90k-100k: 0 war/3 peace 80k-90k: 2 war/0 peace 70k-80k: 1 war/0 peace 60k-70k: 4 war/1 peace Deinos 100k+ NS Nations: 1 war/2 peace 90k-100k: 0 war/2 peace 80k-90k: 1 war/1 peace 70k-80k: 0 war/2 peace 60k-70k: 2 war/2 peace DH Front Total 100k+ NS Nations: 24 war/14 peace 90k-100k: 4 war/7 peace 80k-90k: 17 war/2 peace 70k-80k: 12 war/5 peace 60k-70k: 23 war/4 peace Doomhouse has lost 28 nations above 100k+ since the last update. More precisely they've lost 32 nations from people in combat on 29 Jan and gained 5 nations via the MW and Deinos entries. Anarchy Inc 100k+ NS Nations: 0 war/4 peace 90k-100k: 0 war/0 peace 80k-90k: 2 war/4 peace 70k-80k: 5 war/4 peace 60k-70k: 8 war/6 peace Anarchy Inc fields one nation above 15k tech. They have a total of 13 nations above 10k tech. I've gone from needing to look at three pages of AI nations to run stats on them to not even needing to scroll to the bottom of the first page. This has been absolutely bloody. I'd say the most surprising thing here is that on 29 Jan, AI had 23 nations in the 60k to 70k band. Now they have 14. That should be an area where they can win wars, but instead they're losing people from that band, despite having larger nations dropping down to help up its population. New Pacific Order 100k+ NS Nations: 1 war/3 peace 90k-100k: 1 war/4 peace 80k-90k: 10 war/0 peace 70k-80k: 10 war/4 peace 60k-70k: 14 war/7 peace The NPO has lost nations out of the 100k range, but gained in the lower rangers that I track. This is closer to what I'd expect to see on this front. The NPO has two natins above 10k tech. One at 15k and one at 12k. IRON 100k+ NS Nations: 6 war/1 peace 90k-100k: 3 war/3 peace 80k-90k: 11 war/1 peace 70k-80k: 16 war/2 peace 60k-70k: 23 war/4 peace IRON is holding up well enough. They're better off in the above 100k range than anyone else and seeing a lot of their nations concentrate in the 60k to 70k range. That said, 70k only lets you attack a 93.1k NS nation which isn't going to get the job done in terms of dragging people under 100k. Everyone Else NATO, TIO, LoSS, GO, FAN, TENE, Outlaws, PPO 100k+ NS Nations: 12 war/11 peace 90k-100k: 9 war/8 peace 80k-90k: 14 war/11 peace 70k-80k: 15 war/15 peace 60k-70k: 38 war/7 peace EQ Total 100k+ NS Nations: 19 war/19 peace 90k-100k: 13 war/15 peace 80k-90k: 37 war/16 peace 70k-80k: 46 war/25 peace 60k-70k: 83 war/25 peace EQ has lost 21 nations since the last update compared to Doomhouse losing no more than 32 nations. At the end of the day, we have a tie above 100k Keep in mind this is with the DH not getting credit for its forces that have AA swapped. EQ though continued to hold the advantage in the other tiers, most importantly EQ has 28 nations in the 90k to 100k range versus 11 for Doomhouse. In addition, EQ has brought more forces into this front by pulling in alliances that were previously fighting on the C&G front. Of course the issue is every 100k nation pulled away from that front just makes things that much easier for C&G + Non Grata. The C&G Front C&G: 100k+ NS Nations: 10 war/32 peace 90k-100k: 6 war/7 peace 80k-90k: 10 war/17 peace 70k-80k: 7 war/16 peace 60k-70k: 3 war/20 peace C&G has been able to cycle an impressive number of large nations into peace mode to rebuy nukes and bring out in whatever manner they desire. Non Grata: 100k+ NS Nations: 19 war/3 peace 90k-100k: 2 war/1 peace 80k-90k: 8 war/2 peace 70k-80k: 3 war/2 peace 60k-70k: 1 war/3 peace Non Grata has seen a large drop in nations over 100k+. Of course there is also an entire thread dedicated to listing all the places that NG nations have gone, so determining their exact drop is difficult. Front Total for C&G, NG, and NoR: 100k+ NS Nations: 34 war/37 peace 90k-100k: 11 war/8 peace 80k-90k: 21 war/25 peace 70k-80k: 12 war/24 peace 60k-70k: 5 war/26 peace Front Total for EQ Forces: 100k+ NS Nations: 35 war/19 peace 90k-100k: 37 war/11 peace 80k-90k: 45 war/23 peace 70k-80k: 47 war/21 peace 60k-70k: 73 war/34 peace Your attitude on how this front is playing out likely depends on whether or not you think Non Grata has more strength off AA than the EQ side does. Leaving that argument aside that we see here is that C&G has managed to peace cycle a large number of its large nations, especially those in Int and ODN who have been fighting the longest. That isn't really a good sign for in the upper tier. On the plus side for EQ, they have a lot of nations who have managed to avoid falling below 90k, which means they'll still be able to declare upwards on larger nations. The big take away here is that EQ forces on this front doesn't have much they can loan the Doomhouse front. Pulling NADC and RnR over to the Doomhouse front only supplies any extra 4 nations over 100k and costs EQ nations on a front where they are outnumbered. For the next wave, if you are C&G + friends, you want to grind that 90k to 100k tier to dust and reduce the number of people who can declare up on you. If you're EQ, you want to declare up and drag as many people down with you. TOP Front TOP, TSO, Reaper, and Alchemy 100k+ NS Nations: 7 war/4 peace 90k-100k: 3 war/4 peace 80k-90k: 8 war/2 peace 70k-80k: 4 war/4 peace 60k-70k: 18 war/7 peace EQ Forces 100k+ NS Nations: 18 war/13 peace 90k-100k: 16 war/6 peace 80k-90k: 33 war/9 peace 70k-80k: 30 war/9 peace 60k-70k: 50 war/10 peace When I first summed up the TOP and friends side, I thought I'd be posted how this side was looking good for EQ. It still is with a 31 to 11 advantage above 100k, basically 3:1, for EQ forces. Of course TPF is also now fighting on the DH front, which might mean 6 of those 31 nations over 100k might be pulled off the TOP front. What is impressive is that between 29 Jan and 8 Feb, TOP + Friends lost 19 nations (30 to 11). Doing so cost EQ 34 nations (65 to 31). The story here is that while TOP is getting ground down, it is taking one heck of a millstone to do the grinding and that millstone is requiring frequent replacement. On a side note, if Argent was on the TOP side, the upper tier would be TOP: 12/4, EQ: 13/13. Actually this front would likely favor TOP since they've been expending some effort to grind down Argent, as Argent was one of the main alliances attacking them with high ANS members. Had that effort been spent elsewhere on this front (and Argent been helping), this front would likely heavily favor TOP. The Big Picture Again, your view on a couple of fronts likely depends on what all you think is hiding off AA. That said I see some of the EQ actions as evidence they're not having the greatest time in the upper tier. Namely calling in more forces onto the Doomhouse front when they don't even have a decisive advantage on the C&G front and the TOP front is currently costing them 1.7 nations for each hostile they destroy. For EQ the main issue I see is that DH likely outnumbers EQ on the Doomhouse front, giving their off AA strength. On the C&G front, EQ is outnumbered above 100k. On the TOP front, even if TOP and company surrender today (as opposed to playing turtling nuke turret), TOP has done so much damage that EQ wouldn't free up a decisive number of nations by closing down this front. What EQ really seems to need at this time is the ability to dump more nations onto the Doomhouse front and help with the task of grinding all that tech off Umbrella. The issue is finding those nations. You can borrow some from the TOP front, but if TOP keeps up its damage output it will cost EQ 19 out of its 31 nations on that front just to knock TOP + Friends under 100k. On the C&G front the numbers favor C&G unless those 90k to 100k nations do an amazing job at pulling larger nations down. On the long term level it also seems like DH is benefiting in a number of ways. The strategic issue EQ had with Doomhouse was the tech stockpiles of Umbrella. Yet as it stands EQ has managed to grind down TOP, who while a high ANS alliance was not stocked up on tech to the same degree Umbrella was, and now EQ finds itself needing to grind down Non Grata to free up forces for hitting Umbrella. Non Grata of course holds military treaties with both sides and still is a potential ally for the EQ side postwar. While EQ has managed a lot of destruction in this war, I'm not sure how much of that destruction achieves the primary goal versus is the consolation prize of "Well at least we did damage to TOP" or the booby prize of "We weakened NG and now they aren't quite to well prepared to help us go after Umbrella in a future war" (pending of course NG fighting on the other side next war). For EQ success is going to be defined as finding a way to grind tech off those 48 Umbrella nations currently above 100k (and the 15 MK nations I suppose) versus expending their efforts on other fronts. I think one of the early lessons learned from this war is that EQ needed to keep Non Grata on the sidelines for a longer period of time. I realize a lot of people feel that NG was going to enter on the DH side sooner or later, but that everyday that the NPO and AI managed to keep NG neutral via their ties, was a day that EQ could borrow forces from the C&G front to go hit Umbrella and grind that tech down. The fact that for whatever reason TLR was countered, led to this current state of affairs on the C&G front. In terms of accomplishing the goal of removing Umbrella's tech stockpile, the alliances attacked by TLR would have been better off accepting that TLR was able to punch them in the face for free to allow other alliances to go hit Umbrella. Had NG's entry been delayed until more of Umbrella was in the shark tank, EQ would be better position to accomplish their goals. Of course if NG had entered on EQ's side, that would have been even better for EQ.

I swear I'm not leaving this behind, there will be an update tomorrow. I was pulled away from my gaming time due to some real life stuff (hooray paperwork!).

It's odd really, I'm 69 days old. Luthor is 106 days old, Riddle is 60 days old, longer if you count his run as Winner. Riddle already managed to get a PZI sentence for aid theft which he now has to work his way out of. Luthor of course was going to quit prior to the war due to the fact he'd managed to get on the GOONS enemy list. I'm larger than both of them combined, I've yet to be bulled or otherwise abused by the community. Rather I posted one thread, which I need to find the time to update, and I've had some nice feedback and offers about how if I find myself in need of an alliance people would vouch for me. Perhaps taking the time to learn the community standards and the governing mechanics of the game before shooting your mouth off influences how you are treated?

Supposedly he cut a deal with TDT pay them for the aid he stole. So I'd imagine he has their protection until they get they money back. After that, open season!

The only issue I see with that is that EQ's reserves are falling off. You're right about bringing more stockpiles to the table, however if you look at Doomhouse front to keep all 58 of the nations you face in anarchy you'd need your peace mode reserves to average 1.6 wars. Or in more simple terms, 22 of your 36 reserve nations would need to declare two wars. This is of course a bit of an oversimplification in that it assumes every one of your nations currently in war mode will be in anarchy and unable to declare on a target. It's an assumption, but not one I'd say is insane in that anarchy is widespread when the nukes fly. That means you'll have 22 nations that enter the war with 25 nukes each, can buy 12 during the war, and need to fire 12. So 25 of 37 can be sponged up by the SDI and you get your hit a day. You can tolerate a 68% intercept rate on those. So 22 of your 36 nations can tolerate a 68%. The other 14 can tolerate a 84% intercept rate. The issue is if your reserves continue to drop off you reach a point where your reserves need to average 2.3 wars or something like that your intercept rate tolerance drops too low and you can't launch a nuke a day. Meanwhile rearming will take 13 days assuming the nation is WRC capable. When a nation enters a war without a full stockpile instead of it being 25 out of 37 can miss or 31 out of 37 can miss. Suddenly it say 16 out of 22 can miss (72% intercept rate), 10 out of 22 (45% intercept rate), etc. Of course you can also alter the odds by shorting the number of days a nation needs to fire nukes for. Have a nation say fire for four days and then have a second nation declare and take over. That just means that second nation comes into the war early and has less time to rebuild the stockpile. I see the looming issue for the EQ forces fighting on some fronts being the stockpile they bring into the table and the intercept rate they can tolerate. Your reserves are dropping off while DH has achieved parity. If we reach a point where say both sides are averaging being hit by two nukes per war cycle, it swings in favor of Umbrella. They get to hit you twice with a nuke that has 12k tech behind it, you get to hit them twice by a nuke that only have 7k tech behind it. I bet a lot of Umbrella nations will take that deal. Basically I'm not sure if you can keep doing 3 v 1 with all three of your guys having full nuclear stockpiles. EQ can push the odds in the direction of 3 v 1 in the TOP front, but if they do so that means no nations sitting back and reloading the silo which spells trouble in a round or two depending on how many nations have to shoot themselves dry to crack the SDIs. On the other fronts, I'm not seeing how you get 3 v 1 above 100k. Of course below it, 3 v 1 is manageable in a number of tiers. Edit: Oh and we almost made it page 5 before things started degenerating. I guess that counts for something.

To begin with, my apologies if I missed anyone's DoWs. I wasn't paying that close of attention to the forums, but I've tried to go back and catch them all. Also thanks to Roxas for the war web which is invaluable for double checking to make sure I have everyone. TOP Front Alchemy Alchemy has entered on the TOP side of things and done so without significant use of peace mode through their tiers. Alchemy brings with them 4 nations over 100k NS, with three of the four having over 10k tech. The total count for Alchemy is: 100k+ NS: 4 war 90k to 100k: 3 war 80k to 90k: 3 war/1 peace 70k to 80k: 2 war 60k to 70k: 2 war TOP TOP meanwhile has suffered a significant drop in nations since I looked at them last Friday. On Friday they has 18 nations above 100k in war mode and 7 in peace mode. Today (Monday) I see 8 nations above 100k in war mode and 7 in peace mode. TOP's new breakdown is: 100k+ NS: 8 war/7 peace 90k to 100k: 2 war/6 peace 80k to 90k: 6 war/4 peace 70k to 80k: 8 war/ 6peace 60k to 70k: 2 war/ 8 peace What we see with TOP now are ten nations have dropped out of the 100k range and 4 nations have dropped out of the 90k range since Friday. More impressively is the total movement through the 90k range. 10 nations dropping out of the 100k range means 10 new nations in the 90k range. For the 90k range to be down by 4 overall likely means that 6 of those 100k nations went from over 100k to under 90k since my last update. Or else moved to some other AA for amusement purposes. Assuming no nation movement however, TOP didn't have a great weekend as far as these things go. TSO and Reaper: 100k+ NS: 8 war/ 3 peace 90k to 100k: 4 war/2 peace 80k to 90k: 3 war/1 peace 70k to 80k: 0 war/3 peace 60k to 70k: N/A When these two groups entered, they brought in 12 nations over 100k. Now they are down to 8. The other 4 are hanging out in the 90k to 100k band. I'd imagine these two alliances are benefiting from the fact more of the heat is on TOP, to drag its nations down into the grinder, and thus they suffer fewer losses. TOP +Allies Total 100k+ NS: 20 war/ 10 peace 90k to 100k: 9 war/8 peace 80k to 90k: 10 war/5 peace 70k to 80k: 10 war/9 peace 60k to 70k: 4 war/8 peace EQ Forces on the TOP Front: 100k+ NS: 40 war/ 25 peace 90k to 100k: 21 war/10 peace 80k to 90k: 35 war/10 peace 70k to 80k: 35 war/9 peace 60k to 70k: 32 war/9 peace EQ has had 20 nations fall out of the 100k range from the last time I did this. TOP, Reaper, and TSO had 14 fall out of total, so the TOP side comes out ahead by 6 nations in terms of dropouts. In terms of how far they dropped: Friday 90k to 100k for EQ: 18 war/10 peace Monday 90k to 100k for EQ: 21 war/10 peace That's only a +3 growth in the 90k to 100k range, when 20 EQ nations entered this range. That means heavy casualties in this area as well. All that said though, EQ has enough nations to go 2:1 on all TOP+Allies nations over 100k in war and even if every one of those nations remains over 100k, EQ has enough peace mode reserves to go 1:1 next round currently. The same holds true for the 90k to 100k range. Personally I take this as expected. TOP has always been facing unfavorable odds through this conflict, they were dog piled early and saw limited deployment of reinforcements to their front relative to the strength we've seen DH bring in in other areas. That said TOP is dealing a lot of damage and taking people with them. They've kept things in the 2:1 ballpark for most of the fight and made it so DH wouldn't need to redeploy that many assets to even out this front. EQ has also managed to pull a good number of nations down into the sub 90k range to pound. In terms of future actions, I think one of the more interesting alliances left is Nordreich. They'd contribute 11 nations over 100k. If MK were to deploy forces to the TOP front, or ghost declare to give Nordreich a channel, this front could even out. MK and NoR forces coming in en masse could even swing the front in favor of DH. Of course NoR is in the conflicting treaties boat, with both LoSS and MK holding MDoAPs with NoR. Argent Flip With Argent flipped, you would have 32/25 for the EQ front and 28/11 for TOP. That would give EQ the overall edge though, but the war mode would currently be closer to 1:1. The take away is that a smaller alliance with an upper tier can impact the war more than half a dozen of the other alliances in its coalition. C&G Front TLR of course has been countered, by forces currently on the front as opposed to new entries, and that of course brought in Non Grata. That means you no longer have to read my wild speculation about where NG will fall and what it will do. NG is in and fighting on the C&G Front. GATO has also been countered by forces fighting on that front. As such I'm lumping this into just a broad front versus broad front coalition for the most part, however before that, GATO and TLR both did declare on specific targets. With TLR hitting GOD and Invicta, while TLR hit Sparta. Thus for stats: Sparta 100k+ NS: 4 war/ 2 peace GOD/Invicta 100k+ NS: 1 war On Friday Sparta was contributing a total of 10 nations above 10k to the war effort. Now they contribute 6, a drop of 4. One of the two GOD nations above 100k was also picked off. I'd say the tightly controlled punch of TLR and GATO worked out fairly well. Five nations of the twelve nations over 100k were removed from six digit NS ranks, plenty of forces were left free to handle the counters, and NG was chained in. Excellent all around. On a side note, I want to mention The Republic of Z. At time I did stats: 86k NS, 16,895 tech, 0.00 infrastructure. An excellent example of how you can support a high NS via stockpiling tech. 5k infra would put him well over 100k NS (15k NS from the infra, plus the NS from the troops and tanks he could buy at that infra level). Moving on, the totals for the EQ side fighting on the C&G front are: EQ Forces on the C&G Front 100k+ NS: 69 war/ 29 peace 90k to 100k: 36 war/14 peace 80k to 90k: 53 war/19 peace 70k to 80k: 50 war/23 peace 60k to 70k: 80 war/25 peace That's a total of 9 nations falling out of the six digit NS category. The majority of the damage though seems to be in the 90k to 100k range, where EQ is down 12 nations, despite having 9 nations fall into the category. In other words they were down 21 nations here under 9 fell in this range. Assuming of course everyone only fell one strength band. Now on the C&G, C&G itself is at: C&G Forces 100k+ NS: 23 war/28 peace 90k to 100k: 8 war/16 peace 80k to 90k: 6 war/21 peace 70k to 80k: 10 war/21 peace 60k to 70k: 8 war/21 peace C&G has seen 21 nations fall out of the six digit category based on these stats. Also TLR and GATO has continued to shield large reserves in peace mode. When they entered they only brought in nations above 100k and they haven't brought anyone to support those nations. Non Grata has entered in a similar fashion, with New Luskan being the sole nation in the 90k to 100k band to have failed to hit peace mode. New Luskan also lacks any offensive wars or aid history. Someone needs to check his nation more. Non Grata: 100k+ NS: 32 war/3 peace 90k to 100k: 1 war/4 peace 80k to 90k: 0 war/4 peace 70k to 80k: 0 war/5 peace 60k to 70k: 1 war/4 peace NG's entry really does a lot to even up the odds here. It goes from 23 C&G nations facing off against 69 EQ nations this round to 55 versus 69. Both parties also hold comparable peace mode reserves, with NG tipping the scale slightly in favor of C&G. That said this is again similar to the TOP front, where a number of C&G nations have been dragged down to the shark tank. The 70k to 80k range for C&G has grown from 4 nations to 10 (11 if you count the one NG nation that failed to peacemode) for example. We've seeing growth in other ranges as well. It appears the EQ forces on the C&G front had their time with good odds and now have to settle in for something closer to a 1:1, while they chew on what they managed to drag down prior to the NG entry. Doomhouse Front This front used to be so nice and sane, so easy to do. Then the GOONS declared war and people decided to jump all over them, despite the fact the GOONS had one nation over 100k and half their midrange nations were secured in peace mode. Depending on how you look at it, either the GOONS are unpopular or fighting the GOONS is a great way to get in a DoW without having to expose that upper tier. NPL is now fighting on two fronts of course as well. That said I'm tracking NPL solely on the C&G front until such as a time as a meaningful amount of large NPL nations engage someone on the Doomhouse front. The new arrivals stats: LoSS 100k+ NS: 0 war/1 peace 90k to 100k: 0 war/4 peace 80k to 90k: 1 war/1 peace 70k to 80k: 2 war/1 peace 60k to 70k: 1 war/4 peace Guru Order 100k+ NS: 0 war/6 peace 90k to 100k: 0 war/1 peace 80k to 90k: 0 war/4 peace 70k to 80k: 2 war/1 peace 60k to 70k: 3 war/2 peace FAN 100k+ NS: 1 war/0 peace 90k to 100k: 4 war/0 peace 80k to 90k: 3 war/1 peace 70k to 80k: 1 war/0 peace 60k to 70k: 12 war/1 peace That's a total of 8 nations over 100k, with all but the FAN nation in peace mode. The impact of these nations remains to be seen. Specifically the question is, are those 7 in peace mode to form part of a later reserve? Or are those 7 in peace mode because the alliances decided they wanted to partake in the war, but didn't want to expose themselves to the Umbrella and MK nations fighting on this front? Time will of course tell which path is taken. As for the current EQ forces (now with BAPS tossed into the AI stats), it is as follows. Anarchy Inc AI + BAPS 100k+ NS: 4 war/5 peace 90k to 100k: 4 war/1 peace 80k to 90k: 7 war/1 peace 70k to 80k: 11 war/2 peace 60k to 70k: 22 war/1 peace Sons of Anarchy 70k to 80k: 3 war 60k to 70k: 1 war I used to have to view the first three pages of AI to gather stats on them, when I found myself only needed to click to the second back to gather all the stats, I knew this wouldn't be pretty. On Friday AI had 2 nations over 100k in war mode and 15 in peace mode. Come Tuesday they appear to have brought out 10 of those peace mode nations. Despite that only 4 AI nations remain over 100k in war mode. They've dropped from 17 total to 9 total. The 70k to 80k range has had a large number of dropouts. New Pacific Order and IRON 100k+ NS: 7 war/14 peace 90k to 100k: 11 war/8 peace 80k to 90k: 27 war/2 peace 70k to 80k: 39 war/7 peace 60k to 70k: 32 war/9 peace The big question here is if NG now considers its treaty with the NPO and IRON suspended for the duration of the conflict and thus forces can strike at these alliances with impunity, or if deployments against NPO and IRON are still limited. That said IRON has launched a wave of attacks against VE and there are also VE vs NPO fights going on. Thus I'd say any concern over Umbrella having to fight solo against these alliances is gone. In terms of pure performance, NPO and IRON have lost 10 nations out of the six digit NS range. Couple with AI's drop, that is 18 total. EQ Forces Fighting on the Doomhouse Front When you take all of the above, plus add in NATO and TIO, you come up with the totals of: 100k+ NS: 23 war/36 peace 90k to 100k: 27 war/22 peace 80k to 90k: 45 war/21 peace 70k to 80k: 72 war/16 peace 60k to 70k: 91 war/21 peace Umbrella 100k+ NS: 31 war/2 peace 90k to 100k: 5 war/0 peace 80k to 90k: 8 war/0 peace 70k to 80k: 2 war/0 peace 60k to 70k: 1 war/0 peace Umbrella has dropped 12 nations over 100k NS. Either due to war damage or vacations off AA. Even so, Umbrella has more nations in war mode than the entire front fighting them. Two large Umbrella nations also managed to make it to peace mode. Mushroom Kingdom 100k+ NS: 14 war/4 peace 90k to 100k: 5 war/2 peace 80k to 90k: 4 war/2 peace 70k to 80k: 4 war/7 peace 60k to 70k: 4 war/4 peace MK is down 4 nations from the six digit range. That's a total of 16 for DH, compared to the 18 total by IRON and the NPO. VE 100k+ NS: 12 war/2 peace 90k to 100k: 3 war/0 peace 80k to 90k: 4 war/1 peace 70k to 80k: 5 war/0 peace 60k to 70k: 5 war/0 peace VE is down just one nation above 100k. However they are seeing heavy damage in the 80k to 90k range and such. This is expected given that VE entered with most of their alliance in war mode and a lot of the midrange NPO, IRON, and AI nations were waiting for people to fight. The side totals (adding in GOONS) are: Doomhouse Total 100k+ NS: 58 war/8 peace 90k to 100k: 13 war/2 peace 80k to 90k: 16 war/3 peace 70k to 80k: 11 war/7 peace 60k to 70k: 10 war/7 peace The upper tier on this front is now 1:1, assuming of course GO and LoSS opt to engage more than just GOONS. That said for this war cycle the odds currently favor Doomhouse based on the number in war mode. This brings up an interesting challenge for the EQ side. Even if you bring everyone out, you're still 1:1 and the nuclear damage rate favors Doomhouse due to their higher tech and more damaging nukes. If you keep a reserve, it gives you the ability to deploy against Umbrella nations and keep them at war for 21 full days (thus ensuring you force an anarchy collection and you get 21 days of nukes). However keeping a reserve means that your nations currently out of war mode will be facing poor odds. The Big Picture What I find interesting here is how the Doomhouse and TOP fronts mirror each other. TOP is facing 2:1 odds vs EQ forces, while the EQ forces currently in war mode on the DH front are facing the same odds. If all EQ forces on the DH front commit, they'd manage to make it more comparable to the C&G front where we're in the ballpark for 1:1. Of course the constant on both fronts is that EQ needs to remain aggressive in its DoWs to avoid letting large nations slip over to peace mode and rearm or get out of anarchy long enough to hit the collect taxes button. Moving forward, pending some more support, EQ seems to have shot its bolt on the DH and C&G fronts. They've dragged down a number of nations to chew on and now they're facing even odds in the upper tier. On the TOP front, EQ can continue to make progress, but TOP is making them pay for it. Also if any alliance is set up to spend a long time as turtling nuke turrets, I would imagine it is TOP due to their experience from BiPolar. On two of the three fronts EQ is now entering a stage where it can either fight without a large peace mode reserve to come in and ensure DH nations remain in war mode and anarchy or keep nations back in peace mode but give opposing forces the numbers advantage. I'm curious to where TIO and NATO will stand in a round or so of war. It seems like DH has focused on doing damage to AI, IRON, and NPO. It could be TIO and NATO are next in line to be targeted by the DH upper tier. As for C&G front the question will of course be if NG is decisive as people assumed they were. NG is a fairly tech heavy bunch and might be able to blow away a lot of enemy infra quickly al la how Umbrella did away with a lot of the infra heavy NPO and IRON nations.