QUOTE (juslen @ Oct 31 2009, 07:44 PM)

Keynesian economics.. Keynes was be rolling in his grave if he knew how politicians abused his economic philosophy. You can't spend your way out of a recession without accumulating massive debt. And the simple fact that the ACLU study has come under wide criticism only bolsters its credibility. If anyone wants to understand how dangerous Roosevelt and many other liberal politicians have been to our economy over the last 100 years just look up Milton Friedman. Government intervention of any form often prolongs the time it takes for recovery, the giant stimulus package know as WWII was simply the incentive for Americans to work and save. Not to mention with a global war and the United States mainland safe and secure the United States became a major source of resources and trade.
People always like to use the huge spending numbers to justify the recovery. And today, you are seeing over 1 trillion dollars worth of stimulus with minimal job creation. So by that logic, the United States should spend nearly 6 trillion. After all, that would be around 40% of GDP as was spend during WWII.
Lets face some facts here. Keynesian was wrong, implemented today at the scale it was during WWII the United States would be be totally devastated and buried in debt.
Its sad when you realize that another World War would completely destroy the United States today. We are nothing more than a consumer nation which is in debt by trillions of dollars to China, Japan and Europe.
So please explain again how we can spend our way out of a recession? And lets just say we can.. how in the world can we pay off our debt when deficits are projected to be over 1 trillion for the next 10 years? Our current system is unsustainable and nobody is willing to admit it.
Sounds like someone is a bit nostalgic for the good ol' days. It sounds like your argument is that you have to deficit-spend like WWII or else it's totally pointless, and other government interventions are just going to be prolong the downturn, and thus we shouldn't do anything, but that simply isn't the case. The stimulus is definitely saving jobs at the state and local government level and has a whole bunch of infrastructure programs that are directly employing people. Knowing exactly how many jobs were saved by the stimulus is impossible to know, but we can look at the uptick in GDP and see that a huge chunk of it is related directly and indirectly to government spending. And we're not feeling the full effects yet. It takes time for the shock to be felt through the whole economy.
True, we're not back to where we were, and this stimulus project alone isn't anywhere near enough to get us back to full employment. That doesn't mean it isn't working, it just means it ain't big enough, but it's still helping. Same thing happened in the 1930s. FDR ran deficits that, as a % of GDP, were actually SMALLER than what we are running right now. The economy was picking up, GDP was increasing and unemployment was going down, but the economy was just SO depressed that he wasn't spending enough to get the system right. A drop of 15% in the unemployment back then puts you at 10%, still way too high. WWII-level deficit spending was NOT necessary to end the depression, but a bigger deficit was needed.
So, even back then, WWII level spending was not needed. We SURE don't need it today, because the economy is nowhere near as bad as it was in the 30s. It could conceivably get that bad, but if it does, we're not talking about a $6 trillion deficit. And a lot of our deficit will be inflated, too, with another sharp recession maybe 10-15 years from now to kill the inflation expectations.
As for how we can spend ourselves out of a recession, it's actually quite simple. Demand-Recessions occur when the private sector is trying to save more money than it can actually reasonably do, throwing the economy out of whack as everyone STOPS spending money. The government offsets this by DISsaving.
And if another World War happened today...well...depends, what are the sides? But the relevant part isn't the debt. Believe me, it ain't the debt. If need be, we just default or print a crap ton of money. The problem with a modern war is that the American economy is not suited for a war in the way it was back in WWII. Our economy is much more information and service-based these days. But that can be worked around, and though it would take a while for the American war machine to get moving, anyone who isn't China would get steam-rolled.
QUOTE (juslen @ Oct 31 2009, 08:18 PM)

Again, back then we spend over 40% of our GDP on "stimulus"
That money jump started the manufacturing industry in the United States for military preparations and production during WWII.
People were also told to ration food, supplies, resources, you name it. The United States essentially worked to provide food and shelter for the average American. There was no car buying, joyriding, wasteful spending etc..
Americans saved every last cent they had. People didn't have huge credit card debt, car loans, and home loans to take care of. They lived in close knit extended families. The entire nation was essentially put on reserve notice.
WWII was not "cash for clunkers" it wasn't GM bailouts.. everything was different. And back then the United States actually exported goods, today we import nearly everything. There was also a massive influx of gold and money being pushed into the United States. After all, 1/4 of the world was under fire.. Europe, South Africa, Russia..
WWII cannot be compared to any modern stimulus package. The reason why we are in a recession is because the entire world (besides China, Japan, South America) has been spending themselves into massive debt through entitlement programs and social spending.
The United States went into a recession and half the world followed. Why? Because all we do is gobble up resources, goods, most countries rely on the United States for exports.
You want to see a big joke.. when the United States turns into most of Europe. While you guys are battling Muslims we will be trying to support our massive debts and entitlement programs that most European nations have taken for granted for the last 50 years. And the United States is just getting started, only we haven't been smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others, we are jumping head first into our own economic disaster and the rest of the world can prepare to grab their ankles for China when they become the next world power.

You sound like you're saying that the problem is that Americans just spend too much damn money, and the good thing about WWII as stimulus is that we were able to sacrifice. Don't try that line of argument, it makes no sense. The whole reason we work in an economy in the first place is to spend. I like being able to drive around on Saturday night, I like being able to have sugar in my coffee, I like being able to have rope to tie stuff around my house. That's why I am looking for a job. Obviously, spending beyond your means is REALLY bad, but how the hell does that make sacrificing FOR A WAR good?
WWII was a
terrible outcome from an economic standpoint. Did it end the Great Depression? Yes. But only because the retarded way we define economic progress. Drafting 10% of your population to go fight someone halfway around the world is stupid. Spending one-third of your income on guns is stupid. Getting 400,000 of your men killed in battle is stupid. Having such high spending and inflation that you need to give people ration cards to hold down prices so people all get some stuff is stupid.
War is bad, bad, bad. Bombs do not feed people, they kill people. I will take bailouts and cash for clunkers any day of the week as a stimulus before I support invading some random country just because we need our economy to work.
QUOTE (Ethan Smith @ Nov 1 2009, 12:48 AM)

The housing crisis is due to 2 things--
The repeal of Glass-Sterman (right?), which allowed normal banks to start becoming investment banks, leading to far less safety and for banks to give out WAY more loans
and that people thought that investing in real estate was a really good idea, creating a bubble. This happens all the god damn time, even way back in the 1600's.
Glass-Steagall gets wayyyyy too much attention. IMO, trying to separate investment banks and commercial banks is not productive and is another example of how US financial regulation is kinda retarded. Universal banks are used pretty much everywhere in the world and they are pretty workable concepts, and even in the US the big universal banks have held up reasonably well, whereas the stand-alone investment banks got crushed (except GS and MS, GS having pulled off a miracle and off-loading pretty much all their crappy subprime stuff prior to the meltdown).
Much better ways to regulate the financial system are out there. Step 1, higher capital requirements for investment banks. Step 2, regulate the shadow banking sector. There's a whole bunch of financial mechanisms out there that do bank-ish activities but aren't banks (think Hedge Funds)