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Nuclear Success Formula?


Polemos

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Go play any lotto site, you'll fine similar RNG, on occasion anyway, you also have to account for it being hundreds to thousands of other players to account for your bad luck :v

Edited by Mogar
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On 2016-06-17 at 3:14 PM, Blackatron said:

Each nuke has a 40% chance of hitting, whilst missing 13 nukes in a row is very unlikely: 0.6^13 chance, but given the number of wars taking place in the game it happens from time to time, you just got exceptionally unlucky.

 

(The most nukes in a row I've heard about being blocked before is 12, going up that high is obviously rare.)

The worst total streak I've ever had personally was 12 straight. There was an incident a couple years back where I and a guy who was fighting the same nation as me combined for 2 for 26 nukes hit over a 2-day period.

 

However, I've fired quite a lot of nukes, definitely in the hundreds and quite possibly in the thousands going back to 2009, so you would expect to see outliers like that from time to time. Overall I'm nearly exactly at 40% at the end of every major war. I've never found that it matters whether you wait or just fire right away again.

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40 minutes ago, Haflinger said:

The worst total streak I've ever had personally was 12 straight. There was an incident a couple years back where I and a guy who was fighting the same nation as me combined for 2 for 26 nukes hit over a 2-day period.

 

However, I've fired quite a lot of nukes, definitely in the hundreds and quite possibly in the thousands going back to 2009, so you would expect to see outliers like that from time to time. Overall I'm nearly exactly at 40% at the end of every major war. I've never found that it matters whether you wait or just fire right away again.

 

Thanks for the insight, I think we tend to notice the outliers too much just because that's how human psychology works, looking at the ratio of hits:thwarted, it's always over 2:3, which makes sense because not everyone has an SDI.

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Because of my NS range, nearly every single nuke I've fired has been against a nation with an SDI. I think back in 2010 during bipolar I hit some non-SDI nations, but that was probably only maybe a week or two I was fighting them, near the end of the war.

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