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Upper Tier Tracking Thread


OverlordShinnra

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We've all been tracking this thread --> http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?/topic/114908-upper-end-of-the-war/

 

And while I really hope it continues to be updated, I think some of us want more :)  So I'll be tracking the upper end of this war and adding my own commentary in this thread. Updates will come every other day as far as statistics go. Commentary might come more often. 

 

Going to start off by stating where the stats are coming from. I split the stats into different fronts in order to better track how some individual alliances were doing and to better paint a picture of the war. Here is how I decided to split them up based on where their wars were (if you would like me to track an AA I'm not currently tracking shoot me a pm). 

------------------------------------------------

 

"Original Front" - Duckroll vs. Doomhouse

DR and co. - Ai, IRON, NPO, TIO, NATO, Gramlins, LoSS, ML, CoJ, FAN, PPO, GO, UE

DH and co. - Umbrella, VE, MK, DBDC, Deinos, Darkfall, Mushqaeda

 

 

"Front 1" - Aztec vs. TOP

Aztec and co. - GLOF, AB, Argent, TORN, TPF, DT, Sengoku, Nebula-X, SNAFU

TOP and co. - TOP, OTR, TSO

 

 

"Front 2" - SF/XX/Aftermath vs. CnG

SF/XX/Aftermath and co. - GOD, RIA, RnR, NPL, MHA, Sparta, FARK, TTK, CRAP, CCC, MCXA, NADC, NEW, DBD, Ragnarok, Invicta, NpO, Avalanche, The Legion, GDA, UCR

CnG and co. - ODN, INT, TLR, GATO, NG, NoR, MW, UCoN

 

----------------------------------------------

 

If I've left out an alliance it is usually because these alliances did not have any nations within range of a "top tier" (anything above 80k). These alliances include but are not limited to ones such as Alchemy, LSF, Zulu.. If and when an alliance runs out of nations over the 80k threshold I will stop tracking them after two updates. For instance FARK on my first day of tracking (2 days ago) had 2 nations above the 80k threshold but today they had none. If on the next update they were to maintain that then they would fall from the tracking and become irrelevant as far as this thread is concerned. 

 

Here is the template I'm using to present the stats;

 

Alliance, Bloc or Coalition Name

  120k+ - Number of Nations in Tier from last update (Number in War Mode) --> Number of Nations in Tier Now (Number in War Mode)

  100k - "   "

  80k - "    "

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

 

Totals for the Original Front:

 

 

DR and co.
  120k+ - 12 (2) --> 10 (0) 
  100k - 17 (7) --> 17 (7) 
  80k - 86 (55) --> 87 (56) 
 
DH and co.
  120k+ - 27 (20) --> 24 (19)
  100k - 15 (11) --> 13 (9)
  80k - 18 (15) --> 16 (13)

 

 
Commentary:
It is very little surprise these days to see nations dropping like flies out of the 120k+ zone for the equilibrium coalition and particularly on this front. It is interesting to note that the two nations who did drop are both nations that could very easily rebuy up into that range. These nations are Bob Janova of The Gramlins and Matt Miller of IRON. Even facing 3 on 1's for the foreseeable future both of these nations have the tech to support staying above 100k for as long as they want to (with the occasional drop below). The remaining nations in the DR coalition above 120k with one or two exceptions have 20k infra and if they chose to come out of peace mode it would go to reason that they would drop very quickly to the high tech nukes of the DH coalition. You can see why DR chooses to use peace mode for all of its remaining nations above that threshold and very heavily in the 100k tier. As we drop down to the 80k tier we can see that DH is vastly outnumbered and that brings up three very very important questions going forward. 
 
1. How low will the super nations of the Doom House coalition (particularly in Doombird doomcave) be able to hit in order to mitigate this advantage?
2. How long will the high tech nations of DH and co. that fall into the 100k and 80k ranges be able to hold up once they have been swarmed?
3. How many nations will the swarmed nations bring down with them on their way to the bottom?
 
 
 
 
 
Totals for Front 1:
 
 

Aztec and co.
  120k+ - 8 (0) --> 8 (0)
  100k - 12 (6) --> 11 (3)
  80k - 29 (17) --> 32 (24)
 
TOP and co.
  120k+ - 4 (3) --> 3 (2)
  100k - 3 (3) --> 4 (4)
  80k - 13 (8) --> 9 (4)


Commentary 

This was and remains the one front that the Equilibrium has had an advantage on all tiers and yet there is a heavy use of peace mode above 100k. So much so that they remain outnumbered in war mode by the TOP and co. nations. I wonder why that is. Obviously this is a coalition war and there is a lot of crossover specifically from MK, Umbrella and DBDC. But that still doesn't mitigate the fact that these nations might not be doing the amount of damage needed on this front where they clearly have an advantage at the top. I suppose only time will tell how the number pan out here vs. other fronts.

 

 

 

Totals for Front 2:

 

 

SF/XX/Aftermath and co.
  120k+ - 14 (4) --> 13 (3)
  100k - 31 (16) --> 23 (6)
  80k - 104 (62) --> 102 (56)
 
CnG and Co.
  120k+ - 37 (22) --> 38 (24)
  100k+ - 27 (16) --> 18 (8)
  80k - 51 (23) --> 57 (29)

 

Commentary:

Of all the fronts that could define this war, I believe this is the one that defines it best. On the one hand in SF/XX/Aftermath you have a vast array of NS and AA's coming to bat which outnumber the other side by quite a bit. The nations in most tiers are finding themselves outnumbered and staggered over and over and over again with no end in site. And yet in the top tiers there is a clear advantage for the CnG and co. side which evens things up. Consequently this also happens to be where we are seeing the most damage done in the entire war. Specifically I want to talk about alliance targeting. Some AA's at certain points of the war have been getting targeted and those alliances get a heavy dose of damage and find themselves in a much different scenario then they did a week ago or in some cases even two days ago. In this instance that alliance is the "Nusantara Elite Warriors". As recent as two days ago NEW had 7 nations above 100k with 5 of them in war mode. After being heavily targeted by Doombird Doomcave they find themselves almost in absolute ruin as they have only their 2 peace mode nations left in only two days time. While obviously they have plenty of war in other areas this is where we see the capabilities of what we have come to call "Super Nations". These super nations obviously have a lot of capability for destruction but how well will it hold up as the ranks of the 100k nations begin to thin out. That is probably the question for the entire war.

 

 

 

Totals for the Entire War:

 

 

Equilibrium
  120k+ - 34 (6) --> 31 (3)
  100k - 60 (29) --> 51 (16)
  80k - 218 (133) --> 220 (135)
 
Other Coalition
  120k+ - 68 (45) --> 65 (45)
  100k - 45 (30) --> 39 (21)
  80k - 82 (46) --> 82 (46)

 

 

 

Until next time :)

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Very good analysis! My take on it is that the first coalition to lose an alliance to surrender has a very good chance of losing the war. Once one alliance drops out, we could see a whole bunch on one side leaving. Also, Non Grata will be forced out of peace mode in a few days and it'll be hunt or be hunted between Aftermath and NG.
 
Really, the strategy for Equilibrium is to pound away at the upper tier just enough to suck opponents down into the meat grinder where they can be swarmed and beaten down to a pulp. This will force "Competence" to mobilize their high and middle tiers (at which point Equilibrium will have the vast numerical advantage). The opposing plan seems to be to keep the war up top for as long as possible. But we all know peace mode can't last forever. And the Equilibrium will slowly pick apart the opposing coalition as they leave peace mode.

 

If we look at the damage one for one, C&G and co. will win. No doubt. But when all is said and done, it'll be the Soviets beating Germany, Zerg beating Protoss. Equilibrium will have done what it set out to do.

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The reason why there is a large use of peace mode above 100k for the Aztec & co. group is two fold:

1)Their remaining nations above 100k are, for the most part, non fighting nations: people with bad warchests, cowards, etc.

2)As soon as they open up above 100k - and it's really the case above 120k - we send tech heavy nations on them and they get sent down.

 

Most of the alliances fighting on the Aztec & co. front now have a NS ceiling of 85k and falling, save for a few from DT, TPF and GLOF. This is what we wanted to accomplish.

 

P.S: Aztec & Co. also include Molon Labe, Confederatio Aesir and United Equestria.

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The reason why there is a large use of peace mode above 100k for the Aztec & co. group is two fold:

1)Their remaining nations above 100k are, for the most part, non fighting nations: people with bad warchests, cowards, etc.

2)As soon as they open up above 100k - and it's really the case above 120k - we send tech heavy nations on them and they get sent down.

 

Most of the alliances fighting on the Aztec & co. front now have a NS ceiling of 85k and falling, save for a few from DT, TPF and GLOF. This is what we wanted to accomplish.

 

P.S: Aztec & Co. also include Molon Labe, Confederatio Aesir and United Equestria.

 

The bulk of ML's wars have been against Umbrella and MK. CA doesn't have any nations above the 80k threshold. I might move UE over to the Aztec and Co. but were talking about 1 nation so its pretty minuscule.

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Alchemy had 150k+ NS nations that have been smashed. They and TSO have been brutalized this war. TOP is also taking it extremely hard but have massive war chests to recover lost infra unless they keep re-buying thousands daily as some do. The big thing is the non-pm nations from those alliances are losing thousands and thousands of tech. Which takes longer to replace. Overall I enjoy fighting TOP, gotten a turtle or two but mostly very excellent and deserving of their rep. Not surprising out of them, they are an elite member alliance.

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Very good analysis! My take on it is that the first coalition to lose an alliance to surrender has a very good chance of losing the war. Once one alliance drops out, we could see a whole bunch on one side leaving. Also, Non Grata will be forced out of peace mode in a few days and it'll be hunt or be hunted between Aftermath and NG.
 
Really, the strategy for Equilibrium is to pound away at the upper tier just enough to suck opponents down into the meat grinder where they can be swarmed and beaten down to a pulp. This will force "Competence" to mobilize their high and middle tiers (at which point Equilibrium will have the vast numerical advantage). The opposing plan seems to be to keep the war up top for as long as possible. But we all know peace mode can't last forever. And the Equilibrium will slowly pick apart the opposing coalition as they leave peace mode.

 

If we look at the damage one for one, C&G and co. will win. No doubt. But when all is said and done, it'll be the Soviets beating Germany, Zerg beating Protoss. Equilibrium will have done what it set out to do.

 

Very good analysis! My take on it is that the first coalition to lose an alliance to surrender has a very good chance of losing the war. Once one alliance drops out, we could see a whole bunch on one side leaving. Also, Non Grata will be forced out of peace mode in a few days and it'll be hunt or be hunted between Aftermath and NG.
 
Really, the strategy for Equilibrium is to pound away at the upper tier just enough to suck opponents down into the meat grinder where they can be swarmed and beaten down to a pulp. This will force "Competence" to mobilize their high and middle tiers (at which point Equilibrium will have the vast numerical advantage). The opposing plan seems to be to keep the war up top for as long as possible. But we all know peace mode can't last forever. And the Equilibrium will slowly pick apart the opposing coalition as they leave peace mode.

 

If we look at the damage one for one, C&G and co. will win. No doubt. But when all is said and done, it'll be the Soviets beating Germany, Zerg beating Protoss. Equilibrium will have done what it set out to do.

I think its not this unless something folds early on the CnG front.

 

The question is 'are VE and NSO both willing to become the new GOONS in order to enable there side to win?'

If yes then are NPO,NpO, Fark and MHA?

If yes then are CnG, Mk, and ToP?

If yes than is DH?

If yess than is Umbrella?

 

the first one to answer no luses if we get to the end IDK

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I think its not this unless something folds early on the CnG front.

 

The question is 'are VE and NSO both willing to become the new GOONS in order to enable there side to win?'

If yes then are NPO,NpO, Fark and MHA?

If yes then are CnG, Mk, and ToP?

If yes than is DH?

If yess than is Umbrella?

 

the first one to answer no luses if we get to the end IDK

 

what does this mean

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I think people are having a hard time understanding an alliance needs a nation 80k+ ns to be listed.

I'd still list them, just for the sake of it. Also, United Equestria got 80+k NS nations. So does Molon Labe. The fact that a few alliances now [i]lack[/i] nations above 80k NS is pretty relevant.

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I think its not this unless something folds early on the CnG front.

 

The question is 'are VE and NSO both willing to become the new GOONS in order to enable there side to win?'

If yes then are NPO,NpO, Fark and MHA?

If yes then are CnG, Mk, and ToP?

If yes than is DH?

If yess than is Umbrella?

 

the first one to answer no luses if we get to the end IDK

 

emot-wtc.gif

Lay off the sauce brother. 

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I believe that the upper end war is becoming less relevant each day and the mid tier war is where the war is really heating up.  Perhaps the discussion would be more relavent if we added the mid tiers as well.

 

The problem with this version of mid-tier war is that the mid-tier of DH is the top top tier of Equilibrium.  So it is really depends on how you define mid tiers.

 

I believe this is the only statistical data available to everyone on mid tiers: http://forums.cybernations.net/index.php?/blog/811/entry-3683-stats-itb-4/

 

The data shows a tie between the 80k-60K NS tier between Jan 26 and Feb 11 based on number of nations lost at that tier.

 

I have not included the 100k-80k since this tier is where the majority of Equis 'top tier' resides.  So, if you want 100k-80k included, that would be a 'top tier' discussion rather than a mid tier one.

 

The reason the data on this thread is good is that the data shows peace mode and war mode nations and by front by front stats.

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"Front 1" - Aztec vs. TOP
Aztec and co. - GLOF, AB, Argent, TORN, TPF, DT, Sengoku, Nebula-X, SNAFU, ML, UE, CA
TOP and co. - TOP, OTR, TSO, Alchemy
 
Totals for Front 1:
 Commentary 
This was and remains the one front that the Equilibrium has had an advantage on all tiers and yet there is a heavy use of peace mode above 100k. So much so that they remain outnumbered in war mode by the TOP and co. nations. I wonder why that is. Obviously this is a coalition war and there is a lot of crossover specifically from MK, Umbrella and DBDC. But that still doesn't mitigate the fact that these nations might not be doing the amount of damage needed on this front where they clearly have an advantage at the top. I suppose only time will tell how the number pan out here vs. other fronts.


It's possible there are other things at play here, of course, but I think you pretty much covered the reason we're seeing what would be undue use of peace mode by the upper tier of AZTEC & Friends IF this war had neatly divided fronts, like those listed in the OP. However, as you mention, this is a coalition war and there's lots of crossover -- and the area in which DH & Co can best afford this crossover is the upper tier. And as one might predict, we (AZTEC & friends) have seen our share of wars from the likes of DBDC. Granted, I'm not omniscient (and that's a damn shame!) and there may be more at play here, but it seems fairly straightforward to me. Edited by Farnsworth
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It's possible there are other things at play here, of course, but I think you pretty much covered the reason we're seeing what would be undue use of peace mode by the upper tier of AZTEC & Friends IF this war had neatly divided fronts, like those listed in the OP. However, as you mention, this is a coalition war and there's lots of crossover -- and the area in which DH & Co can best afford this crossover is the upper tier. And as one might predict, we (AZTEC & friends) have seen our share of wars from the likes of DBDC. Granted, I'm not omniscient (and that's a damn shame!) and there may be more at play here, but it seems fairly straightforward to me.

 

i think it was a good view on the war. but i do agree hear its not strait forward and just clear lines. example we have a few MK'ers hitting with CnG.  but overall its pretty good.

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I think its not this unless something folds early on the CnG front.

 

The question is 'are VE and NSO both willing to become the new GOONS in order to enable there side to win?'

If yes then are NPO,NpO, Fark and MHA?

If yes then are CnG, Mk, and ToP?

If yes than is DH?

If yess than is Umbrella?

 

the first one to answer no luses if we get to the end IDK

What is this language you speak.. Umb & MK = GOONS now?  :psyduck:

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Good analysis, how I thought this war would turn out, but it isn't over yet, and won't be over until both sides want a peace (or enough people on both sides want a peace and drop out of their respective coalitions), and then comes the negotiations to get terms both sides can agree with.

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I think its not this unless something folds early on the CnG front.

 

The question is 'are VE and NSO both willing to become the new GOONS in order to enable there side to win?'

If yes then are NPO,NpO, Fark and MHA?

If yes then are CnG, Mk, and ToP?

If yes than is DH?

If yess than is Umbrella?

 

the first one to answer no luses if we get to the end IDK

 

Do people really not understand this? I think it's perfectly clear. I mean, feel free to disagree with him, but there's no need to act like you don't understand it. For those that lack the reading comprehension or language ability to get it: he's suggesting that an alliances of infra-huggers or stat-lovers may call it quits and thereby hasten their sides eventual defeat. For instance, alliances like VE and NSO (NSO is a bit of a different story in that they're on a different front) have seen their ANS plummet and are taking a harder hit (I'm not actually sure how hard NSO is being hit, tbh, but I'm not sharing my opinion, but rather explaining someone else's) than some alliances. It's possible some of these alliances don't want to be the "new GOONS", as he says. I take this to mean a very low ANS alliance. Then he goes through a rather incomplete list of alliances (roughly in order of ANS) that may need to decide if they're willing to "go for broke" and join GOONS at the bottom. Again, this is his prediction, not mine. 

 

He's saying that if any of these large, presumably important/significant alliances say, "Hey, you know what, I don't want to ruin my alliance (destroy all our pixels) for this silly war" and thus drop out, it will lessen the chances of eventual victory (perhaps he would even allow a Soviet over German type victory). 

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I think some alliances that we could see leaving on both sides are as follows:

 

[b]Equilibrium[/b]

AZTEC alliances

The Dark Templar

NEW

 

[b]Competence[/b]

TSO

TOP

-----------------------------

The difference between the quitters for Equilibrium is that the coalition doesn't really "need" them. If TOP leaves, it would mean dishonoring the Reaver Accords with Umbrella, The Unholy Alliance with MK, and the Concordia Compact with TSO. If TOP leaves, TSO leaves. And the question to "Who wins the war?" is really "Which side is more patient?"

 

Equilibrium needs to hold fast to its guns and slowly scrape away at Competence, while the latter needs to somehow justify the destruction of vast amounts of tech in the defense of Umbrella (or in defense of the Hegemony...or why ever it is everyone is fighting).

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I think some alliances that we could see leaving on both sides are as follows:

 

Equilibrium

AZTEC alliances

The Dark Templar

NEW

 

Competence

TSO

TOP

-----------------------------

The difference between the quitters for Equilibrium is that the coalition doesn't really "need" them. If TOP leaves, it would mean dishonoring the Reaver Accords with Umbrella, The Unholy Alliance with MK, and the Concordia Compact with TSO. If TOP leaves, TSO leaves. And the question to "Who wins the war?" is really "Which side is more patient?"

 

Equilibrium needs to hold fast to its guns and slowly scrape away at Competence, while the latter needs to somehow justify the destruction of vast amounts of tech in the defense of Umbrella (or in defense of the Hegemony...or why ever it is everyone is fighting).

 

Your otherwise stellar affiliation has been brushed across your post, for that is the quality of your opinions.

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