The treaties go bump in the night
So this is about the treaty web and the fact that so many alliances have conflicting treaties. Which people complain about. A lot. If you are not aware of this, welcome to the OWF, I hope your first time is not too traumatising.
The thing is, everyone has either very very few treaties or treaties that might seem to clash. Yet lots of people bemoan the twisted nature of the web and the insane complex tangle that can now only be expressed in 3D.
However, it continues. In every war there have been alliances that are caught on both sides. Some of these are old treaties that no longer reflect the political landscape, and some are signed with both sides knowing damn well they will be on opposite sides in the future.
The key point though is why? Why does everyone do this? Well, I regard this as painfully simple. I will refer to events in Ender's Shadow (never quite got round to reading Ender's game shhhh). Warning, spoilers below.
When Ender is first made a Captain in the team as they play on the space station he radically changes the strategy for fighting. And they are devastatingly effective. And Bean reflects on this he realises that this is because the accepted doctrine of fighting is a a guaranteed draw. To change and attempt something different risks defeat and a slide down the leaderboard.
Well, the same applies here. Some alliances have figured out that clashing treaties, provided it is properly managed, is a way to play the game that gives them a moderate amount of success. The ability to have a broad spectrum of allies means any challenger must have a broad spectrum of allies as well. If you play in the same way, you are guaranteed a draw, in that you hope to get as many wins and defeats as anyone else and remain roughly speaking where you are.
However, if you were to aggressively change, and go against the grain, you would find yourself fighting as a minority of one. If it succeeded you would be victorious and dominant. If you failed...well there is a long road to climb back up for those that lose in this game.
Ultimately, the tangled treaty web may or may not be the best way to play this game. But unless you are able to be 100% sure that a new stratagem is the way forward, you will not take that risk. This is not the Game of Thrones were you play to win or die. This is the Game of Webs, where you play to survive or die.
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